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Nautico Recife vs Londrina — Serie B 2026

Nautico Recife
Nautico Recife
Preview
00:30
Londrina
Londrina
7/23/2026Serie BSerie B · Round 19
Big match
40%
Nautico Recife
model favours
40%26%34%

Londrina are unbeaten in 5 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Nautico Recife40%
×Draw26%
Londrina34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nautico Recife
1.44
Londrina
1.30

Nautico Recife creates 11% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 19 away

creates per match

Nautico Recife
1.13
Londrina
1.16

allows per match

Nautico Recife
1.44
Londrina
1.74

finishing

Nautico Recife+0.00on par
Londrina+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nautico Recife ↓

Londrina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Nautico Recife or draw
66%
Nautico Recife or Londrina
74%
Draw or Londrina
60%

Winning margin

Nautico Recife wins by 2+
19%
Londrina wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Nautico Recife 1+ goals
76%
Nautico Recife 2+ goals
42%
Nautico Recife 3+ goals
18%
Londrina 1+ goals
73%
Londrina 2+ goals
37%
Londrina 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Nautico Recife (draw refunded)
54%
Londrina (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nautico Recife at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

Londrina away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nautico Recife attack 1.13 + Londrina defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.44

Londrina attack 1.16 + Nautico Recife defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Nautico Recife scores more
40%
level
26%
Londrina scores more
34%

Nautico Recife at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Nautico Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Nautico Recife score first in only 26% of matches
  • Londrina have won 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Both teams score in only 26% of Nautico Recife’s matches
  • 38% of Londrina’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Nautico Recife matches are rarely goalless — only 4.3% end 0-0
  • Londrina outscore their xG (1.5 vs 1.2 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Nautico Recife
Attack-heavy
Londrina
Balanced
57%Possession48%
81%Pass accuracy78%
15.5ShotsBiggest gap11.7
1.47xG1.16
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Nautico RecifeLondrina

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

1
Nautico Recife
0
Draws
4
Londrina
Avg goals: 3BTTS: 60%
2–02–31–20–21–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Recife
LLDLL
Londrina
DWDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Nautico Recife face Londrina (Serie B)

Serie B returns with Nautico Recife hosting Londrina. Match starts July 23, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.