Londrina 2–0 Nautico Recife: Result & Stats

Londrina

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Nautico Recife

Gabriel Negueba 40'

Jhonny Lucas 35'

4/10/2022

Serie B · Round 1Estádio Municipal Jacy Scaff

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Londrina47%

×Draw26%

Nautico Recife27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LondrinaExpected goals in this matchNautico Recife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.08

Londrina

1.50

Nautico Recife

1.08

Londrina creates 39% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

1.37

creates per match

1.05

1.11

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Londrina

1.37

Nautico Recife

1.05

allows per match

Londrina

1.11

Nautico Recife

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Londrina+0.00on par

Nautico Recife+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Londrina ↓

Nautico Recife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Londrina or draw

73%

Londrina or Nautico Recife

74%

Draw or Nautico Recife

53%

Winning margin

Londrina wins by 2+

23%

Nautico Recife wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Londrina 1+ goals

78%

Londrina 2+ goals

44%

Londrina 3+ goals

19%

Nautico Recife 1+ goals

66%

Nautico Recife 2+ goals

29%

Nautico Recife 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Londrina (draw refunded)

63%

Nautico Recife (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Londrina at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Nautico Recife away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Londrina attack 1.37 + Nautico Recife defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.50

Nautico Recife attack 1.05 + Londrina defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Londrina scores more

47%

level

26%

Nautico Recife scores more

27%

Londrina at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Londrina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Gabriel Negueba

Londrina · F

8.3

Match Events

35'

Jhonny Lucas↳ Gabriel Negueba

37'

Carlão

40'

Gabriel Negueba↳ Samuel Santos

46'

Marcinho← S. Chukwuemeka

48'

56'

59'

63'

65'

Ralph← Rhaldney

65'

Pedro Vitor← Robinho

68'

Mandaca← Felipe Vieira

74'

Gabriel Honório← Gabriel Negueba

76'

Amarildo← R. Franco

76'

Léo Passos← Ewandro

87'

Mossoró← Caprini

87'

Dudu← Eltinho

90+5'

Júnior Tavares

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LondrinaNautico

Overview

44%Possession56%

13Total Shots13

3Corners4

26Fouls18

Shots

13Total Shots13

8On Target2

3Off Target6

2Blocked5

4Inside Box7

9Outside Box6

Passing

44%Possession56%

338Total Passes414

255Accurate Passes344

75%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

26Fouls18

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1