Londrina 3–2 Nautico Recife: Result & Stats

Londrina

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Nautico Recife

Maurício 90'

Everton 45'

Rafael Longuine 12'

Gustavo Maia 57'

Bruno Mezenga 17'

8/24/2024

Serie C · Round 19Estádio Municipal Jacy Scaff

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Londrina33%

×Draw29%

Nautico Recife39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LondrinaExpected goals in this matchNautico Recife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.19

Londrina

1.07

Nautico Recife

1.19

Nautico Recife creates 11% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 13 away

1.38

creates per match

1.31

1.06

allows per match

0.77

creates per match

Londrina

1.38

Nautico Recife

1.31

allows per match

Londrina

1.06

Nautico Recife

0.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Londrina+0.00on par

Nautico Recife+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Londrina ↓

Nautico Recife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Londrina or draw

61%

Londrina or Nautico Recife

71%

Draw or Nautico Recife

67%

Winning margin

Londrina wins by 2+

13%

Nautico Recife wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Londrina 1+ goals

66%

Londrina 2+ goals

29%

Londrina 3+ goals

9%

Nautico Recife 1+ goals

70%

Nautico Recife 2+ goals

33%

Nautico Recife 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Londrina (draw refunded)

46%

Nautico Recife (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Londrina at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

Nautico Recife away — creates 1.31, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Londrina attack 1.38 + Nautico Recife defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.07

Nautico Recife attack 1.31 + Londrina defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Londrina scores more

33%

level

29%

Nautico Recife scores more

39%

Nautico Recife at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Nautico Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

14'

17'

45+4'

45'

46'

48'

57'

64'

64'

Calyson Rosa← Henrique

64'

Ingro← Everton

69'

Felipe Ferreira← Patrick Allan

69'

Mateus Ludke← Arnaldo

78'

Echaporã← Iago Teles

78'

Gustavo França← Rafael Longuine

79'

Henrique Lordelo← Matheus Melo

88'

Kayon← Bruno Mezenga

90+5'

Pedro Jorge← Maurício

90'

Maurício

Londrina4-2-3-1

Nautico4-4-2

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Longuine

▼

Teles

⚽

▼

Everton

Manager: Claudinei Oliveira

64'▲Calyson Rosa←▼Henrique

64'▲Ingro←▼Everton

78'▲Echaporã←▼Iago Teles

78'▲Gustavo França←▼Rafael Longuine

90+5'▲Pedro Jorge←▼Maurício

Londrina substitutes

RosaIngroEchaporãFrançaJorgeVinhasRoqueDanielzinhoGefersonMarthãCachoRiquelmy

Manager: Bruno Pivetti

46'▲Iran Sidny←▼Perema

69'▲Felipe Ferreira←▼Patrick Allan

69'▲Mateus Ludke←▼Arnaldo

79'▲Henrique Lordelo←▼Matheus Melo

88'▲Kayon←▼Bruno Mezenga

Nautico Recife substitutes

SidnyFerreiraLudkeLordeloKayonMaticoliAndreyMatosAntônioThalissinhoLessa