Nautico Recife 1–2 Londrina: Result & Stats

Nautico Recife

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Londrina

Jean Carlos 63'

Luiz Henrique 51', 20'

9/22/2021

Serie B · Round 25Estádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Nautico Recife38%

×Draw26%

Londrina37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nautico RecifeExpected goals in this matchLondrina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.37

Nautico Recife

1.39

Londrina

1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 21 away

1.11

creates per match

1.24

1.50

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Nautico Recife

1.11

Londrina

1.24

allows per match

Nautico Recife

1.50

Londrina

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nautico Recife+0.00on par

Londrina+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nautico Recife ↓

Londrina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Nautico Recife or draw

63%

Nautico Recife or Londrina

74%

Draw or Londrina

62%

Winning margin

Nautico Recife wins by 2+

17%

Londrina wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Nautico Recife 1+ goals

75%

Nautico Recife 2+ goals

40%

Nautico Recife 3+ goals

16%

Londrina 1+ goals

75%

Londrina 2+ goals

40%

Londrina 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Nautico Recife (draw refunded)

51%

Londrina (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nautico Recife at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

Londrina away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.67 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nautico Recife attack 1.11 + Londrina defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.39

Londrina attack 1.24 + Nautico Recife defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Nautico Recife scores more

38%

level

26%

Londrina scores more

37%

Nautico Recife at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nautico Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Luiz Henrique

Londrina · M

8.7

Match Events

7'

Diogo Hereda← Bryan

12'

Danilo← Pedro Cacho

20'

Luiz Henrique↳ Júnior Pirambu

39'

Camutanga

42'

Rhaldney

45+2'

Marcelinho

46'

Alvaro← Tailson

46'

Luiz Henrique← Djavan

51'

58'

60'

63'

63'

Jean Carlos↳ Vinícius

65'

Caprini← Marcelinho

65'

Salatiel← Júnior Pirambu

73'

Tárik← Danilo

76'

85'

87'

90'

90+6'

90+6'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NauticoLondrina

Overview

68%Possession32%

19Total Shots16

10Corners6

14Fouls28

Shots

19Total Shots16

7On Target6

7Off Target6

5Blocked4

10Inside Box11

9Outside Box5

Passing

68%Possession32%

424Total Passes201

347Accurate Passes118

82%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

Discipline

14Fouls28

5Yellow Cards5