Nautico Recife 0–1 Cruzeiro: Result & Stats

Nautico Recife

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Cruzeiro

Willian Oliveira 39'

5/15/2022

Serie B · Round 7Estádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Nautico Recife36%

×Draw29%

Cruzeiro35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nautico RecifeExpected goals in this matchCruzeiro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.12

Nautico Recife

1.15

Cruzeiro

1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 52 away

1.33

creates per match

1.04

1.20

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Nautico Recife

1.33

Cruzeiro

1.04

allows per match

Nautico Recife

1.20

Cruzeiro

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nautico Recife+0.00on par

Cruzeiro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nautico Recife ↓

Cruzeiro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Nautico Recife or draw

65%

Nautico Recife or Cruzeiro

71%

Draw or Cruzeiro

64%

Winning margin

Nautico Recife wins by 2+

15%

Cruzeiro wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Nautico Recife 1+ goals

68%

Nautico Recife 2+ goals

32%

Nautico Recife 3+ goals

11%

Cruzeiro 1+ goals

67%

Cruzeiro 2+ goals

31%

Cruzeiro 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Nautico Recife (draw refunded)

51%

Cruzeiro (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nautico Recife at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.20 · 75 matches

Cruzeiro away — creates 1.04, concedes 0.96 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nautico Recife attack 1.33 + Cruzeiro defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.15

Cruzeiro attack 1.04 + Nautico Recife defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Nautico Recife scores more

36%

level

29%

Cruzeiro scores more

35%

Nautico Recife at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Nautico Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Rafael Cabral

Cruzeiro · G

7.9

Match Events

14'

Camutanga

20'

Oliveira

39'

Bryan

39'

Willian Oliveira↳ Fernando Canesin

46'

Carlão← Camutanga

50'

Zé Ivaldo

57'

Adriano← Willian Oliveira

57'

Rômulo← Zé Ivaldo

57'

Geovane← Marcelinho

59'

Pedro Vitor← Ralph

66'

Eduardo← Luis Phelipe

66'

Diego← Daniel

73'

L. Henrique← Rafael Silva

82'

Thassio← Aílton

83'

Julio← Amarildo

87'

Geovane

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NauticoCruzeiro

Overview

46%Possession54%

16Total Shots13

6Corners6

15Fouls16

Shots

16Total Shots13

4On Target2

8Off Target4

4Blocked7

7Inside Box6

9Outside Box7

Passing

46%Possession54%

336Total Passes394

248Accurate Passes300

74%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls16

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1