Cruzeiro 0–0 Nautico Recife: Result & Stats

Cruzeiro

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Nautico Recife

1/24/2021

Serie B · Round 37Estádio Raimundo Sampaio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Cruzeiro53%

×Draw27%

Nautico Recife21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CruzeiroExpected goals in this matchNautico Recife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.80

Cruzeiro

1.46

Nautico Recife

0.80

Cruzeiro creates 83% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 77 away

1.35

creates per match

0.74

0.87

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Cruzeiro

1.35

Nautico Recife

0.74

allows per match

Cruzeiro

0.87

Nautico Recife

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cruzeiro+0.00on par

Nautico Recife+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruzeiro ↓

Nautico Recife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Cruzeiro or draw

79%

Cruzeiro or Nautico Recife

73%

Draw or Nautico Recife

47%

Winning margin

Cruzeiro wins by 2+

27%

Nautico Recife wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Cruzeiro 1+ goals

77%

Cruzeiro 2+ goals

43%

Cruzeiro 3+ goals

18%

Nautico Recife 1+ goals

55%

Nautico Recife 2+ goals

19%

Nautico Recife 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Cruzeiro (draw refunded)

72%

Nautico Recife (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruzeiro at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.87 · 55 matches

Nautico Recife away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.57 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruzeiro attack 1.35 + Nautico Recife defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.46

Nautico Recife attack 0.74 + Cruzeiro defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Cruzeiro scores more

53%

level

27%

Nautico Recife scores more

21%

Cruzeiro at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Cruzeiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Jean Carlos

Nautico Recife · M

7.6

Match Events

10'

Fábio

12'

Vitor Eudes← Rafael Sóbis

29'

45'

45'

46'

54'

62'

Jhonnatan← Djavan

62'

Dadá Belmonte← Vinícius

68'

Erick Arruda

69'

Welinton← Giovanni

69'

Jorge Henrique← Erick

78'

Patrick Brey← Airton

90'

William Pottker

90+3'

Ruy← Jean Carlos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CruzeiroNautico

Overview

24%Possession76%

9Total Shots11

3Corners6

16Fouls15

Shots

9Total Shots11

2On Target3

5Off Target7

2Blocked1

4Inside Box5

5Outside Box6

Passing

24%Possession76%

166Total Passes547

116Accurate Passes482

70%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls15

4Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

0Offsides1