Nautico Recife 0–1 Cruzeiro: Result & Stats

Nautico Recife

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cruzeiro

Thiago 83'

8/17/2021

Serie B · Round 19Estádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Nautico Recife36%

×Draw29%

Cruzeiro35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nautico RecifeExpected goals in this matchCruzeiro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.12

Nautico Recife

1.15

Cruzeiro

1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 52 away

1.33

creates per match

1.04

1.20

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Nautico Recife

1.33

Cruzeiro

1.04

allows per match

Nautico Recife

1.20

Cruzeiro

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nautico Recife+0.00on par

Cruzeiro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nautico Recife ↓

Cruzeiro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Nautico Recife or draw

65%

Nautico Recife or Cruzeiro

71%

Draw or Cruzeiro

64%

Winning margin

Nautico Recife wins by 2+

15%

Cruzeiro wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Nautico Recife 1+ goals

68%

Nautico Recife 2+ goals

32%

Nautico Recife 3+ goals

11%

Cruzeiro 1+ goals

67%

Cruzeiro 2+ goals

31%

Cruzeiro 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Nautico Recife (draw refunded)

51%

Cruzeiro (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nautico Recife at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.20 · 75 matches

Cruzeiro away — creates 1.04, concedes 0.96 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nautico Recife attack 1.33 + Cruzeiro defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.15

Cruzeiro attack 1.04 + Nautico Recife defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Nautico Recife scores more

36%

level

29%

Cruzeiro scores more

35%

Nautico Recife at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Nautico Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Fábio

Cruzeiro · G

7.9

Match Events

39'

Djavan

45+2'

Adriano

66'

Claudinho← Giovanni

66'

Wellington Nem← Bruno José

66'

Rafael Sóbis← Eduardo

67'

G. Paiva← Caio Dantas

67'

Marciel← Iago Dias

67'

Tailson← Rhaldney

73'

Thassio← Diogo Hereda

73'

Flávio← Adriano

82'

Thiago← M. Martins

83'

Tailson

83'

Thiago

88'

Matheus Carvalho← Djavan

90+4'

Ramon

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NauticoCruzeiro

Overview

53%Possession47%

12Total Shots12

5Corners5

24Fouls16

Shots

12Total Shots12

4On Target3

2Off Target7

6Blocked2

8Inside Box8

4Outside Box4

Passing

53%Possession47%

332Total Passes296

243Accurate Passes193

73%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

24Fouls16

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides3