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Nautico Recife vs Botafogo PB — Copa do Nordeste 2020

Nautico Recife
Nautico Recife
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Botafogo PB
Botafogo PB
2/3/2024Copa do NordesteCopa do Nordeste · Group Stage - 1Estádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Nautico Recife43%
×Draw30%
Botafogo PB27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nautico Recife
1.19
Botafogo PB
0.88

Nautico Recife creates 35% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 23 away

creates per match

Nautico Recife
1.20
Botafogo PB
0.96

allows per match

Nautico Recife
0.80
Botafogo PB
1.17

finishing

Nautico Recife+0.00on par
Botafogo PB+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nautico Recife ↓

Botafogo PB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Nautico Recife or draw
73%
Nautico Recife or Botafogo PB
70%
Draw or Botafogo PB
57%

Winning margin

Nautico Recife wins by 2+
19%
Botafogo PB wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Nautico Recife 1+ goals
70%
Nautico Recife 2+ goals
33%
Nautico Recife 3+ goals
12%
Botafogo PB 1+ goals
59%
Botafogo PB 2+ goals
22%
Botafogo PB 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Nautico Recife (draw refunded)
61%
Botafogo PB (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nautico Recife at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 20 matches

Botafogo PB away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nautico Recife attack 1.20 + Botafogo PB defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Botafogo PB attack 0.96 + Nautico Recife defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Nautico Recife scores more
43%
level
30%
Botafogo PB scores more
27%

Nautico Recife at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nautico Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nautico Recife vs Botafogo PB

Botafogo PB beat Nautico Recife 1-0 in Copa do Nordeste on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho in Recife, Pernambuco.