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Botafogo PB vs Nautico Recife — Copa do Nordeste 2020

Botafogo PB
Botafogo PB
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Nautico Recife
Nautico Recife
3/23/2022Copa do NordesteCopa do Nordeste · Quarter-finalsEstádio José Américo de Almeida Filho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Botafogo PB51%
×Draw26%
Nautico Recife24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botafogo PB
1.54
Nautico Recife
0.96

Botafogo PB creates 60% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 25 away

creates per match

Botafogo PB
1.32
Nautico Recife
1.20

allows per match

Botafogo PB
0.72
Nautico Recife
1.76

finishing

Botafogo PB+0.00on par
Nautico Recife+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo PB ↓

Nautico Recife →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Botafogo PB or draw
76%
Botafogo PB or Nautico Recife
74%
Draw or Nautico Recife
49%

Winning margin

Botafogo PB wins by 2+
26%
Nautico Recife wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Botafogo PB 1+ goals
79%
Botafogo PB 2+ goals
45%
Botafogo PB 3+ goals
20%
Nautico Recife 1+ goals
62%
Nautico Recife 2+ goals
25%
Nautico Recife 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Botafogo PB (draw refunded)
68%
Nautico Recife (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo PB at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.72 · 25 matches

Nautico Recife away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.76 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo PB attack 1.32 + Nautico Recife defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.54

Nautico Recife attack 1.20 + Botafogo PB defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Botafogo PB scores more
51%
level
26%
Nautico Recife scores more
24%

Botafogo PB at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Botafogo PB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botafogo PB 1 – 1 Nautico Recife

Botafogo PB and Nautico Recife drew 1-1 in Copa do Nordeste on March 23, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio José Américo de Almeida Filho in João Pessoa, Paraíba.