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Botafogo PB vs Nautico Recife — Serie C 2018

Botafogo PB
Botafogo PB
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Nautico Recife
Nautico Recife
6/19/2023Serie CSerie C · Round 9Estádio José Américo de Almeida Filho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Botafogo PB47%
×Draw27%
Nautico Recife26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botafogo PB
1.40
Nautico Recife
0.98

Botafogo PB creates 43% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 52 away

creates per match

Botafogo PB
1.49
Nautico Recife
1.10

allows per match

Botafogo PB
0.86
Nautico Recife
1.31

finishing

Botafogo PB+0.00on par
Nautico Recife+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo PB ↓

Nautico Recife →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Botafogo PB or draw
74%
Botafogo PB or Nautico Recife
73%
Draw or Nautico Recife
53%

Winning margin

Botafogo PB wins by 2+
22%
Nautico Recife wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Botafogo PB 1+ goals
75%
Botafogo PB 2+ goals
41%
Botafogo PB 3+ goals
17%
Nautico Recife 1+ goals
62%
Nautico Recife 2+ goals
26%
Nautico Recife 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Botafogo PB (draw refunded)
64%
Nautico Recife (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo PB at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.86 · 93 matches

Nautico Recife away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.31 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo PB attack 1.49 + Nautico Recife defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.40

Nautico Recife attack 1.10 + Botafogo PB defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Botafogo PB scores more
47%
level
27%
Nautico Recife scores more
26%

Botafogo PB at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Botafogo PB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Botafogo PB vs Nautico Recife

Botafogo PB and Nautico Recife drew 1-1 in Serie C on June 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio José Américo de Almeida Filho in João Pessoa, Paraíba.