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National Bank of Egypt vs Enppi — League Cup 2021

National Bank of Egypt
National Bank of Egyptadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Enppi
Enppi
O. Faisal 90'
A. Rayan 30' (pen)
A. Zaki 37'
6/4/2025League CupLeague Cup · Semi-finalsCairo International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

National Bank of Egypt37%
×Draw30%
Enppi33%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

National Bank of Egypt
1.06
Enppi
0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 16 away

creates per match

National Bank of Egypt
1.11
Enppi
1.06

allows per match

National Bank of Egypt
0.89
Enppi
1.00

finishing

National Bank of Egypt+0.00on par
Enppi+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

National Bank of Egypt ↓

Enppi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

National Bank of Egypt or draw
67%
National Bank of Egypt or Enppi
70%
Draw or Enppi
63%

Winning margin

National Bank of Egypt wins by 2+
15%
Enppi wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

National Bank of Egypt 1+ goals
65%
National Bank of Egypt 2+ goals
29%
National Bank of Egypt 3+ goals
9%
Enppi 1+ goals
62%
Enppi 2+ goals
26%
Enppi 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

National Bank of Egypt (draw refunded)
53%
Enppi (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

National Bank of Egypt at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Enppi away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

National Bank of Egypt attack 1.11 + Enppi defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Enppi attack 1.06 + National Bank of Egypt defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

National Bank of Egypt scores more
37%
level
30%
Enppi scores more
33%

National Bank of Egypt at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "National Bank of Egypt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
M. Ibrahim
30'
A. RayanPenalty
37'
A. Zaki↳ M. Sherif
64'
S. Aka← A. Madbouli
64'
M. Ibrahim← M. Fathi
77'
A. Rayan← M. Shehata
83'
A. Zaki← M. Walid
83'
E. D. Essam S.← E. D. Essam S.
88'
Y. Annor← M. Grendo
90'
O. Faisal↳ A. Madbouli
90+1'
M. Sherif← S. Zayed
90+1'
Z. Kamal← A. Mahmoud

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: National Bank of Egypt 2–1 Enppi

National Bank of Egypt beat Enppi 2-1 in League Cup on June 4, 2025.

Goals: A. Rayan (30' pen), A. Zaki (37'), O. Faisal (90').

The match was played at Cairo International Stadium in Cairo.