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Enppi vs National Bank of Egypt — League Cup 2021

Enppi
Enppi
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
National Bank of Egypt
National Bank of Egyptadvanced
A. El Agouz 12'
O. Faisal 90+23' (pen), 85' (pen)
6/8/2025League CupLeague Cup · Semi-finalsPetrosport Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Enppi29%
×Draw29%
National Bank of Egypt43%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Enppi
0.97
National Bank of Egypt
1.25

National Bank of Egypt creates 29% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 15 away

creates per match

Enppi
0.93
National Bank of Egypt
1.80

allows per match

Enppi
0.71
National Bank of Egypt
1.00

finishing

Enppi+0.00on par
National Bank of Egypt+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enppi ↓

National Bank of Egypt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Enppi or draw
57%
Enppi or National Bank of Egypt
71%
Draw or National Bank of Egypt
71%

Winning margin

Enppi wins by 2+
10%
National Bank of Egypt wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Enppi 1+ goals
62%
Enppi 2+ goals
25%
Enppi 3+ goals
7%
National Bank of Egypt 1+ goals
71%
National Bank of Egypt 2+ goals
36%
National Bank of Egypt 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Enppi (draw refunded)
40%
National Bank of Egypt (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enppi at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

National Bank of Egypt away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enppi attack 0.93 + National Bank of Egypt defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

National Bank of Egypt attack 1.80 + Enppi defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Enppi scores more
29%
level
29%
National Bank of Egypt scores more
43%

National Bank of Egypt at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "National Bank of Egypt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
Oufa
12'
A. El Agouz
25'
A. Rabie
46'
M. Ibrahim← M. Ibrahim
46'
M. Abdelghani← A. Rayan
52'
M. Naser← M. Naser
68'
H. Saleh← M. Bassiouny
68'
A. Madbouli← S. Simpore
74'
M. Hamed
85'
O. FaisalPenalty
87'
R. Kabou← A. Zaki
88'
A. Zaki
88'
M. Dowidar
90'
90+9'
A. Medhat
90+12'
A. El Agouz← S. Zayed
90+12'
M. Sherif← A. Mahmoud
90+17'
Y. Annor← S. Aka
90+23'
M. Dowidar
90+23'
O. FaisalPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Enppi vs National Bank of Egypt

National Bank of Egypt beat Enppi 2-1 in League Cup on June 8, 2025.

Goals: A. El Agouz (12'), O. Faisal (85' pen, 90+23' pen).

The match was played at Petrosport Stadium in Cairo.