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NAŠK Našice vs Belišće — League #217 2026

NAŠK Našice
NAŠK Našice
FT
2 – 1
Belišće
Belišće
11/27/2024League #217League #217 · East - 14Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

NAŠK Našice24%
×Draw28%
Belišće48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NAŠK Našice
0.84
Belišće
1.31

Belišće creates 56% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 8 away

creates per match

NAŠK Našice
0.94
Belišće
1.13

allows per match

NAŠK Našice
1.50
Belišće
0.75

finishing

NAŠK Našice+0.00on par
Belišće+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NAŠK Našice ↓

Belišće →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

NAŠK Našice or draw
52%
NAŠK Našice or Belišće
72%
Draw or Belišće
76%

Winning margin

NAŠK Našice wins by 2+
8%
Belišće wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

NAŠK Našice 1+ goals
57%
NAŠK Našice 2+ goals
21%
NAŠK Našice 3+ goals
5%
Belišće 1+ goals
73%
Belišće 2+ goals
38%
Belišće 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

NAŠK Našice (draw refunded)
33%
Belišće (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NAŠK Našice at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

Belišće away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NAŠK Našice attack 0.94 + Belišće defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.84

Belišće attack 1.13 + NAŠK Našice defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

NAŠK Našice scores more
24%
level
28%
Belišće scores more
48%

Belišće at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Belišće will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #217: NAŠK Našice 2–1 Belišće

NAŠK Našice beat Belišće 2-1 in League #217 on November 27, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Našice.