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Belišće vs NAŠK Našice — League #217 2026

Belišće
Belišće
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
NAŠK Našice
NAŠK Našice
5/24/2025League #217League #217 · East - 29Stadion Gradski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Belišće64%
×Draw21%
NAŠK Našice16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belišće
2.01
NAŠK Našice
0.88

Belišće creates 128% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 17 away

creates per match

Belišće
1.50
NAŠK Našice
0.76

allows per match

Belišće
1.00
NAŠK Našice
2.53

finishing

Belišće+0.00on par
NAŠK Našice+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belišće ↓

NAŠK Našice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Belišće or draw
84%
Belišće or NAŠK Našice
79%
Draw or NAŠK Našice
36%

Winning margin

Belišće wins by 2+
39%
NAŠK Našice wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Belišće 1+ goals
87%
Belišće 2+ goals
59%
Belišće 3+ goals
32%
NAŠK Našice 1+ goals
59%
NAŠK Našice 2+ goals
22%
NAŠK Našice 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Belišće (draw refunded)
80%
NAŠK Našice (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belišće at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

NAŠK Našice away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belišće attack 1.50 + NAŠK Našice defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.01

NAŠK Našice attack 0.76 + Belišće defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Belišće scores more
64%
level
21%
NAŠK Našice scores more
16%

Belišće at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Belišće will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Belišće vs NAŠK Našice

Belišće beat NAŠK Našice 3-1 in League #217 on May 24, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Gradski in Belišće.