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NAŠK Našice vs Belišće — League #217 2026

NAŠK Našice
NAŠK Našice
FT
0 – 2
Belišće
Belišće
8/21/2021League #217League #217 · East - 1Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

NAŠK Našice30%
×Draw29%
Belišće41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NAŠK Našice
1.00
Belišće
1.21

Belišće creates 21% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 8 away

creates per match

NAŠK Našice
1.25
Belišće
1.13

allows per match

NAŠK Našice
1.29
Belišće
0.75

finishing

NAŠK Našice+0.00on par
Belišće+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NAŠK Našice ↓

Belišće →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

NAŠK Našice or draw
59%
NAŠK Našice or Belišće
71%
Draw or Belišće
70%

Winning margin

NAŠK Našice wins by 2+
11%
Belišće wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

NAŠK Našice 1+ goals
63%
NAŠK Našice 2+ goals
26%
NAŠK Našice 3+ goals
8%
Belišće 1+ goals
70%
Belišće 2+ goals
34%
Belišće 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

NAŠK Našice (draw refunded)
43%
Belišće (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NAŠK Našice at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

Belišće away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NAŠK Našice attack 1.25 + Belišće defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.00

Belišće attack 1.13 + NAŠK Našice defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

NAŠK Našice scores more
30%
level
29%
Belišće scores more
41%

Belišće at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Belišće will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NAŠK Našice vs Belišće

Belišće beat NAŠK Našice 2-0 in League #217 on August 21, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Našice.