Nantong Zhiyun 1–0 Meizhou Kejia: Result & Stats

Nantong Zhiyun

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Meizhou Kejia

Cao Kang 71'

4/5/2024

Super League · Round 4Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Nantong Zhiyun62%

×Draw21%

Meizhou Kejia17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nantong ZhiyunExpected goals in this matchMeizhou Kejia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

0.92

Nantong Zhiyun

1.98

Meizhou Kejia

0.92

Nantong Zhiyun creates 115% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 19 away

1.76

creates per match

1.08

0.76

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

Nantong Zhiyun

1.76

Meizhou Kejia

1.08

allows per match

Nantong Zhiyun

0.76

Meizhou Kejia

2.19

-0.56scores less than expected

finishing

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

Nantong Zhiyun-0.56scores less

Meizhou Kejia-0.24scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nantong Zhiyun ↓

Meizhou Kejia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Nantong Zhiyun or draw

83%

Nantong Zhiyun or Meizhou Kejia

79%

Draw or Meizhou Kejia

38%

Winning margin

Nantong Zhiyun wins by 2+

37%

Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Nantong Zhiyun 1+ goals

86%

Nantong Zhiyun 2+ goals

59%

Nantong Zhiyun 3+ goals

31%

Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals

60%

Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals

23%

Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Nantong Zhiyun (draw refunded)

79%

Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nantong Zhiyun at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.76 · 5 matches

Meizhou Kejia away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.19 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nantong Zhiyun attack 1.76 + Meizhou Kejia defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.98

Meizhou Kejia attack 1.08 + Nantong Zhiyun defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Nantong Zhiyun scores more

62%

level

21%

Meizhou Kejia scores more

17%

Nantong Zhiyun at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Nantong Zhiyun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

I. Anthony

Nantong Zhiyun · D

7.7

Match Events

38'

Pan Ximing← D. Morris

50'

Kang Cao

61'

Chen Jie← Shi Liang

62'

Rao Weihui← Chen Zhechao

65'

Jiang Zilei← K. NZuzi Mata

71'

Cao Kang

77'

Yang Chaosheng← Li Ning

77'

Yin Congyao← R. Wankewai

79'

Ji Shengpan← I. Kallon

84'

Lu Yongtao← Yang Mingyang

84'

Liao Lei← Luo Xin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NantongMeizhou

Overview

55%Possession45%

11Total Shots7

0.56Expected Goals (xG)0.15

1Corners4

15Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots7

1On Target0

5Off Target4

5Blocked3

8Inside Box4

3Outside Box3

Passing

55%Possession45%

399Total Passes321

287Accurate Passes194

72%Pass Accuracy60%

Discipline

15Fouls10

1Yellow Cards0

2Offsides1