Meizhou Kejia 2–1 Nantong Zhiyun: Result & Stats

Meizhou Kejia

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Nantong Zhiyun

T. Conraad 68'

N. Kosović 60'

Lu Yongtao 26'

7/13/2024

Super League · Round 19Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Meizhou Kejia46%

×Draw25%

Nantong Zhiyun29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Meizhou KejiaExpected goals in this matchNantong Zhiyun

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.23

Meizhou Kejia

1.61

Nantong Zhiyun

1.23

Meizhou Kejia creates 31% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 5 away

1.63

creates per match

0.97

1.49

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Meizhou Kejia

1.63

Nantong Zhiyun

0.97

allows per match

Meizhou Kejia

1.49

Nantong Zhiyun

1.60

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

+0.63scores more than expected

finishing

Meizhou Kejia-0.15scores less

Nantong Zhiyun+0.63scores more

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meizhou Kejia ↓

Nantong Zhiyun →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Meizhou Kejia or draw

71%

Meizhou Kejia or Nantong Zhiyun

75%

Draw or Nantong Zhiyun

54%

Winning margin

Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+

24%

Nantong Zhiyun wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals

80%

Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals

48%

Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals

22%

Nantong Zhiyun 1+ goals

71%

Nantong Zhiyun 2+ goals

35%

Nantong Zhiyun 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)

61%

Nantong Zhiyun (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meizhou Kejia at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.49 · 21 matches

Nantong Zhiyun away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meizhou Kejia attack 1.63 + Nantong Zhiyun defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.61

Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.97 + Meizhou Kejia defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Meizhou Kejia scores more

46%

level

25%

Nantong Zhiyun scores more

29%

Meizhou Kejia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Meizhou Kejia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

N. Kosović

Meizhou Kejia · M

7.9

Match Events

-5'

Xin Luo

19'

Kang Cao

25'

Liang Shaowen← Luo Xin

26'

Lu Yongtao↳ Jiang Zilei

29'

Issa Kallon

36'

Lu Yongtao

45+9'

Liang Shi

56'

Zilei JiangCard upgrade

58'

Zilei Jiang

60'

Song Haoyu← Zheng Haoqian

60'

Xu Junmin← Lu Yongtao

60'

N. Kosović↳ Chen Zhechao

68'

T. Conraad↳ Rodrigo Henrique

73'

Yin Hongbo← Ye Chugui

75'

Yang Mingyang← Cao Kang

79'

Rodrigo Henrique

81'

Rao Weihui← Chen Zhechao

86'

Weihui Rao

90+12'

Yihu Yang

90+2'

Yang Yihu← J. Uzuegbunam

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MeizhouNantong

Overview

53%Possession47%

13Total Shots12

10Corners5

18Fouls15

Shots

13Total Shots12

5On Target3

7Off Target3

1Blocked6

10Inside Box7

3Outside Box5

Passing

53%Possession47%

313Total Passes283

242Accurate Passes203

77%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls15

4Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

1Offsides2