Nantong Zhiyun 2–2 Meizhou Kejia: Result & Stats

Nantong Zhiyun

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Meizhou Kejia

Romário Baldé 90'

Zheng Haoqian 50'

Yang Chaosheng 90+9'

Yin Congyao 23'

7/2/2023

Super League · Round 14Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Nantong Zhiyun62%

×Draw21%

Meizhou Kejia17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nantong ZhiyunExpected goals in this matchMeizhou Kejia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

0.94

Nantong Zhiyun

2.02

Meizhou Kejia

0.94

Nantong Zhiyun creates 115% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 18 away

1.76

creates per match

1.11

0.76

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Nantong Zhiyun

1.76

Meizhou Kejia

1.11

allows per match

Nantong Zhiyun

0.76

Meizhou Kejia

2.27

-0.56scores less than expected

finishing

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

Nantong Zhiyun-0.56scores less

Meizhou Kejia-0.33scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nantong Zhiyun ↓

Meizhou Kejia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Nantong Zhiyun or draw

83%

Nantong Zhiyun or Meizhou Kejia

79%

Draw or Meizhou Kejia

38%

Winning margin

Nantong Zhiyun wins by 2+

38%

Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Nantong Zhiyun 1+ goals

87%

Nantong Zhiyun 2+ goals

60%

Nantong Zhiyun 3+ goals

33%

Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals

61%

Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals

24%

Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Nantong Zhiyun (draw refunded)

79%

Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nantong Zhiyun at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.76 · 5 matches

Meizhou Kejia away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.27 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nantong Zhiyun attack 1.76 + Meizhou Kejia defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.02

Meizhou Kejia attack 1.11 + Nantong Zhiyun defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Nantong Zhiyun scores more

62%

level

21%

Meizhou Kejia scores more

17%

Nantong Zhiyun at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Nantong Zhiyun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

Cheng Yuelei

Meizhou Kejia · G

8.2

Match Events

23'

Yin Congyao↳ Yin Hongbo

35'

Zheng Haoqian← Yang Mingyang

46'

T. Conraad← Yin Congyao

47'

Tyrone Conraad

50'

Zheng Haoqian↳ Yeljan Shinar

54'

Yang Chaosheng← Chen Guokang

60'

Tze-Nam Yue

67'

Yang Yilin← Ye Chugui

70'

Yilin Yang

70'

Yilin YangCard upgrade

74'

Chen Zhechao← N. Kosović

75'

Liang Shi

75'

Chen Jie← Yin Hongbo

81'

Wang Song← Jiang Zilei

90+4'

Romario Baldé

90+7'

Wang Jie← Gui Hong

90+7'

Kamiran Halimurat← Lucas Morelatto

90'

Romário Baldé↳ Lucas Morelatto

90+9'

Yang Chaosheng↳ Cheng Yuelei

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NantongMeizhou

Overview

60%Possession40%

25Total Shots7

17Corners3

3Fouls11

Shots

25Total Shots7

8On Target3

11Off Target3

6Blocked1

15Inside Box4

10Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

349Total Passes263

249Accurate Passes144

71%Pass Accuracy55%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

3Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

2Offsides1