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Namungo vs Young Africans — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Namungo
Namungo
Preview
18:00
Young Africans
Young Africans
8/15/2026Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 1Majaliwa Stadium
Big match
47%
Young Africans
model favours
23%29%47%

Young Africans are unbeaten in 11 straight

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
67%
under 2.5 goals
39%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Namungo23%
×Draw29%
Young Africans47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Namungo
0.79
Young Africans
1.25

Young Africans creates 58% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 111 away

creates per match

Namungo
1.13
Young Africans
1.60

allows per match

Namungo
0.89
Young Africans
0.45

finishing

Namungo+0.00on par
Young Africans+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Namungo ↓

Young Africans →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–116%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Namungo or draw
53%
Namungo or Young Africans
71%
Draw or Young Africans
77%

Winning margin

Namungo wins by 2+
7%
Young Africans wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Namungo 1+ goals
55%
Namungo 2+ goals
19%
Namungo 3+ goals
5%
Young Africans 1+ goals
71%
Young Africans 2+ goals
36%
Young Africans 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Namungo (draw refunded)
33%
Young Africans (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Namungo at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.89 · 108 matches

Young Africans away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.45 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Namungo attack 1.13 + Young Africans defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.79

Young Africans attack 1.60 + Namungo defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Namungo scores more
23%
level
29%
Young Africans scores more
47%

Young Africans at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Young Africans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Young Africans have won 7 in a row
  • Young Africans score first in 82% of matches
  • Young Africans have won 9 of the last 10 meetings
  • Namungo win just 19% against the top half (vs 46% against the bottom)
  • Young Africans have scored in 7 games running
  • Both teams score in only 27% of Young Africans’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Namungo
Balanced
Young Africans
Possession-dominant
47%Possession62%
—Pass accuracy—
6.0ShotsBiggest gap11.0
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
NamungoYoung Africans

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

0
Namungo
1
Draws
9
Young Africans
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 40%
1–30–10–30–21–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Namungo
WDWDD
Africans
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Namungo vs Young Africans — Match Preview

Namungo face Young Africans on August 15, 2026 in this Ligi kuu Bara fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Namungo host Young Africans at Majaliwa Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.