Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Namungo vs KMC — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Namungo
Namungo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
KMC
KMC
D. Amoah 67'
G. Luzendaze 12'
I. Ahmed 49'
4/6/2025Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 25Majaliwa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Namungo55%
×Draw26%
KMC19%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Namungo
1.48
KMC
0.74

Namungo creates 100% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 23 away

creates per match

Namungo
1.00
KMC
0.52

allows per match

Namungo
0.96
KMC
1.96

finishing

Namungo+0.00on par
KMC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Namungo ↓

KMC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Namungo or draw
81%
Namungo or KMC
74%
Draw or KMC
45%

Winning margin

Namungo wins by 2+
28%
KMC wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Namungo 1+ goals
77%
Namungo 2+ goals
43%
Namungo 3+ goals
19%
KMC 1+ goals
52%
KMC 2+ goals
17%
KMC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Namungo (draw refunded)
75%
KMC (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Namungo at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.96 · 25 matches

KMC away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.96 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Namungo attack 1.00 + KMC defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.48

KMC attack 0.52 + Namungo defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Namungo scores more
55%
level
26%
KMC scores more
19%

Namungo at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Namungo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
G. Luzendaze
49'
I. Ahmed
67'
D. Amoah↳ E. Nyoni

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Namungo vs KMC

Namungo beat KMC 2-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on April 6, 2025.

Goals: G. Luzendaze (12'), I. Ahmed (49'), D. Amoah (67').

The match was played at Majaliwa Stadium in Ruangwa.