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KMC vs Namungo — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

KMC
KMC
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Namungo
Namungo
Unknown 82', 42'
F. Ngoye 60', 26', 20'
6/24/2026Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 28KMC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

KMC28%
×Draw28%
Namungo45%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KMC
0.98
Namungo
1.33

Namungo creates 36% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

KMC
0.63
Namungo
1.17

allows per match

KMC
1.50
Namungo
1.33

finishing

KMC+0.00on par
Namungo+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KMC ↓

Namungo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

KMC or draw
55%
KMC or Namungo
72%
Draw or Namungo
72%

Winning margin

KMC wins by 2+
10%
Namungo wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

KMC 1+ goals
62%
KMC 2+ goals
26%
KMC 3+ goals
8%
Namungo 1+ goals
74%
Namungo 2+ goals
38%
Namungo 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

KMC (draw refunded)
38%
Namungo (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KMC at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Namungo away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KMC attack 0.63 + Namungo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.98

Namungo attack 1.17 + KMC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

KMC scores more
28%
level
28%
Namungo scores more
45%

Namungo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Namungo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
F. Ngoye
26'
F. Ngoye
42'
60'
F. Ngoye
82'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KMC vs Namungo

Namungo beat KMC 3-2 in Ligi kuu Bara on June 24, 2026.

Goals: F. Ngoye (20', 26', 60'), ? (42', 82').

The match was played at KMC Stadium in Dar es Salaam.