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KMC vs Namungo — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

KMC
KMC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Namungo
Namungo
D. Saliboko 50'
S. Mkinyangi 4'
I. Ali 61'
M. Kagere 57'
2/24/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 17Azam Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

KMC33%
×Draw29%
Namungo38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KMC
1.05
Namungo
1.16

Namungo creates 10% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 26 away

creates per match

KMC
0.75
Namungo
0.81

allows per match

KMC
1.50
Namungo
1.35

finishing

KMC+0.00on par
Namungo+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KMC ↓

Namungo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

KMC or draw
62%
KMC or Namungo
71%
Draw or Namungo
67%

Winning margin

KMC wins by 2+
13%
Namungo wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

KMC 1+ goals
65%
KMC 2+ goals
28%
KMC 3+ goals
9%
Namungo 1+ goals
69%
Namungo 2+ goals
32%
Namungo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

KMC (draw refunded)
46%
Namungo (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KMC at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 24 matches

Namungo away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.35 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KMC attack 0.75 + Namungo defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.05

Namungo attack 0.81 + KMC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

KMC scores more
33%
level
29%
Namungo scores more
38%

Namungo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Namungo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
S. Mkinyangi
50'
D. Saliboko
57'
M. Kagere
61'
I. Ali

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

KMC 2 – 2 Namungo

KMC and Namungo drew 2-2 in Ligi kuu Bara on February 24, 2024.

Goals: S. Mkinyangi (4'), D. Saliboko (50'), M. Kagere (57'), I. Ali (61').

The match was played at Azam Complex Stadium in Mbagala.