Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0–3 Nakhon Pathom

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Nakhon Pathom

N. Prachobklang 59'

Valdo 42'

P. Viriyachanchai 28'

1/11/2025

League #296 · Round 16His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Nakhon Ratchasima FC32%

×Draw27%

Nakhon Pathom41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nakhon Ratchasima FCExpected goals in this matchNakhon Pathom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.35

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

1.16

Nakhon Pathom

1.35

Nakhon Pathom creates 16% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 5 away

1.31

creates per match

1.40

1.31

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

1.31

Nakhon Pathom

1.40

allows per match

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

1.31

Nakhon Pathom

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nakhon Ratchasima FC+0.00on par

Nakhon Pathom+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakhon Ratchasima FC ↓

Nakhon Pathom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Nakhon Ratchasima FC or draw

59%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC or Nakhon Pathom

73%

Draw or Nakhon Pathom

68%

Winning margin

Nakhon Ratchasima FC wins by 2+

13%

Nakhon Pathom wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1+ goals

69%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2+ goals

32%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3+ goals

11%

Nakhon Pathom 1+ goals

74%

Nakhon Pathom 2+ goals

39%

Nakhon Pathom 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Nakhon Ratchasima FC (draw refunded)

44%

Nakhon Pathom (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

Nakhon Pathom away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 1.31 + Nakhon Pathom defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.16

Nakhon Pathom attack 1.40 + Nakhon Ratchasima FC defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Nakhon Ratchasima FC scores more

32%

level

27%

Nakhon Pathom scores more

41%

Nakhon Pathom at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Nakhon Pathom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

N. Prachobklang

Nakhon Pathom · F

8.5

Match Events

10'

Sunchai Chaolaokhwan

17'

Weerawat Jiraphaksiri

28'

P. Viriyachanchai

42'

Valdo↳ N. Prachobklang

45+1'

Nattapong Sayriya

46'

S. Romphopak← P. Perm

46'

S. Yapp← K. Daniels

46'

Dudu Lima← Deyvison Fernandes

46'

N. Biesamrit← T. Kaosaart

51'

Auttapon Sangtong

59'

N. Prachobklang↳ L. Ablorh

64'

Nattapong Sayriya

64'

Nattapong Sayriya

66'

Fergus Tierney← S. Chaolaokhwan

68'

Dennis Murillo

69'

N. Jaroenbut← W. Jiraphaksiri

76'

S. Tumsuwan← N. Prachobklang

90'

Thanison Paibulkijcharoen

90+6'

K. Phutchan← Valdo

90+6'

T. Montree← P. Viriyachanchai

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NakhonNakhon

Overview

58%Possession42%

14Total Shots9

3Corners1

17Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots9

3On Target5

5Off Target3

6Blocked1

8Inside Box4

6Outside Box5

Passing

58%Possession42%

502Total Passes379

420Accurate Passes308

84%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls14

5Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1