Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0–0 Nakhon Pathom

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

AET

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Nakhon Pathom

A. Chegini 109' (OG)

11/24/2021

FA Cup · 2nd RoundHis Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Nakhon Ratchasima FC51%

×Draw22%

Nakhon Pathom26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nakhon Ratchasima FCExpected goals in this matchNakhon Pathom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.31

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

1.90

Nakhon Pathom

1.31

Nakhon Ratchasima FC creates 45% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

2.80

creates per match

1.43

1.20

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

2.80

Nakhon Pathom

1.43

allows per match

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

1.20

Nakhon Pathom

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nakhon Ratchasima FC+0.00on par

Nakhon Pathom+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakhon Ratchasima FC ↓

Nakhon Pathom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Nakhon Ratchasima FC or draw

74%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC or Nakhon Pathom

78%

Draw or Nakhon Pathom

49%

Winning margin

Nakhon Ratchasima FC wins by 2+

29%

Nakhon Pathom wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1+ goals

85%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2+ goals

56%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3+ goals

29%

Nakhon Pathom 1+ goals

73%

Nakhon Pathom 2+ goals

38%

Nakhon Pathom 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Nakhon Ratchasima FC (draw refunded)

66%

Nakhon Pathom (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home — creates 2.80, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Nakhon Pathom away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 2.80 + Nakhon Pathom defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.90

Nakhon Pathom attack 1.43 + Nakhon Ratchasima FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Nakhon Ratchasima FC scores more

51%

level

22%

Nakhon Pathom scores more

26%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Nakhon Ratchasima FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

S. Chaolaokhwan← A. Heemkhao

30'

S. Lertpalapong← A. Sapram

36'

J. Niyomsuk← K. Appiah-Kubi

46'

A. Sangrum← S. Buaneam

53'

G. Ndububa← M. Taweekulkarn

53'

W. Un-art← R. Rodwinitch

76'

K. Roekyamdee← A. Hantes

76'

B. Srinam← D. Srangdee

90+1'

R. Choothongchai← A. Kamonchit

107'

W. Pinairam← J. Niyomsuk

109'

A. CheginiOwn goal

112'

A. Chommaleethanawat← N. Biesamrit

114'

P. Tongchaum← S. Chaolaokhwan

Nakhon

62

Jochaworu

15

▼

Kamonchit

4

🥅

Chegini

7

▼

Buaneam

30

▼

Biesamrit

14

▼

Heemkhao

16

▼

19

63

10

27

39

6

▼

Hantes

4

Kerdkaew

25

▼

13

37

81

8

▼

Taweekulk

59

▼

Rodwinitc

9

Karikari

7

▼

Appiah-Ku

Manager: T. Po-On

36'▲J. Niyomsuk←▼K. Appiah-Kubi

53'▲G. Ndububa←▼M. Taweekulkarn

53'▲W. Un-art←▼R. Rodwinitch

76'▲K. Roekyamdee←▼A. Hantes

76'▲B. Srinam←▼D. Srangdee

107'▲W. Pinairam←▼J. Niyomsuk

Nakhon Ratchasima FC substitutes

77Niyomsuk69Ndububa3Un-art31Roekyamdee5Srinam50Pinairam1Boonkerd22Sikkamonthol2Kerdkaew

Manager: T. Sukkoki

30'▲S. Chaolaokhwan←▼A. Heemkhao

30'▲S. Lertpalapong←▼A. Sapram

46'▲A. Sangrum←▼S. Buaneam

90+1'▲R. Choothongchai←▼A. Kamonchit

112'▲A. Chommaleethanawat←▼N. Biesamrit

114'▲P. Tongchaum←▼S. Chaolaokhwan

Nakhon Pathom substitutes

66Chaolaokhwan5Lertpalapong33Sangrum23Choothongchai44Chommaleethanawat21Tongchaum29Promlee46Thongkui64Khoonsom