Nakhon Pathom 1–2 Nakhon Ratchasima FC

Nakhon Pathom

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

Valdo 90+6'

S. Romphopak 59'

Deyvison Fernandes 32'

8/18/2024

League #296 · Round 2Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Nakhon Pathom39%

×Draw27%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nakhon PathomExpected goals in this matchNakhon Ratchasima FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.20

Nakhon Pathom

1.29

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 24 away

1.00

creates per match

1.00

1.40

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Nakhon Pathom

1.00

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

1.00

allows per match

Nakhon Pathom

1.40

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nakhon Pathom+0.00on par

Nakhon Ratchasima FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakhon Pathom ↓

Nakhon Ratchasima FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Nakhon Pathom or draw

66%

Nakhon Pathom or Nakhon Ratchasima FC

73%

Draw or Nakhon Ratchasima FC

61%

Winning margin

Nakhon Pathom wins by 2+

17%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Nakhon Pathom 1+ goals

72%

Nakhon Pathom 2+ goals

37%

Nakhon Pathom 3+ goals

14%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1+ goals

70%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2+ goals

34%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Nakhon Pathom (draw refunded)

53%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakhon Pathom at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Nakhon Ratchasima FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.58 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakhon Pathom attack 1.00 + Nakhon Ratchasima FC defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.29

Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 1.00 + Nakhon Pathom defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Nakhon Pathom scores more

39%

level

27%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC scores more

34%

Nakhon Pathom at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Nakhon Pathom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

Deyvison Fernandes↳ Dennis Murillo

34'

N. Sayriya

54'

Lee Jong-Cheon← Dennis Murillo

59'

S. Romphopak↳ Deyvison Fernandes

61'

A. Sanjairag← W. Thaweesuk

72'

W. Jiraphaksiri

72'

A. Changthong← N. Kokfai

72'

K. Karikari← V. Filipović

74'

A. Sanjairag

80'

N. Sayriya

82'

S. Tumsuwan← N. Prachobklang

82'

A. Sangram← E. Phumpipha

83'

N. Biesamrit← S. Kunmee

90+6'

Valdo↳ A. Sangram

Nakhon

36

Noorach

29

Ansell

92

Paibulkij

15

▼

Thaweesuk

8

Jiraphaks

4

▼

Kunmee

23

A

▼

Murillo

7

Houla

10

⚽A

Fernandes

37

Sayriya

19

⚽

Romphopak

39

Srathongj

31

▼

Phumpipha

65

Auksornsr

5

▼

Filipović

27

Jaiphet

4

Nakarawon

8

▼

Kokfai

13

Ablorh

21

▼

Prachobkl

11

⚽

Valdo

10

Ito

Manager: A. Nawas

72'▲A. Changthong←▼N. Kokfai

72'▲K. Karikari←▼V. Filipović

82'▲S. Tumsuwan←▼N. Prachobklang

82'▲A. Sangram←▼E. Phumpipha

Nakhon Pathom substitutes

29Changthong20Karikari99Tumsuwan33Sangram55Otton14Chim-ong6Phupha66Chaolaokhwan2Worapanichkan3Chuchai19Montree59Buathong

Manager: T. Po-On

54'▲Lee Jong-Cheon←▼Dennis Murillo

61'▲A. Sanjairag←▼W. Thaweesuk

83'▲N. Biesamrit←▼S. Kunmee

Nakhon Ratchasima FC substitutes

6Jong-Cheon16Sanjairag30Biesamrit17Khamphaeng24Perm1Prathumma5Nueangprakaew21Jaroenbut31Phonsawang48Bangsungnoen44Phonsawang33Plodkeaw