Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Nagoya Grampus vs Shimizu S-pulse — J1 League 2025

Nagoya Grampus
Nagoya Grampus
Preview
10:00
Shimizu S-pulse
Shimizu S-pulse
8/8/2026J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 1Toyota Stadium
Big match
46%
Nagoya Grampus
model favours
46%26%28%

92% of Nagoya Grampus’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Nagoya Grampus46%
×Draw26%
Shimizu S-pulse28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nagoya Grampus
1.48
Shimizu S-pulse
1.09

Nagoya Grampus creates 36% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 18 away

creates per match

Nagoya Grampus
1.48
Shimizu S-pulse
0.98

allows per match

Nagoya Grampus
1.21
Shimizu S-pulse
1.48

finishing

Nagoya Grampus-0.15scores less
Shimizu S-pulse-0.26scores less

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nagoya Grampus ↓

Shimizu S-pulse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Nagoya Grampus or draw
72%
Nagoya Grampus or Shimizu S-pulse
74%
Draw or Shimizu S-pulse
54%

Winning margin

Nagoya Grampus wins by 2+
23%
Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Nagoya Grampus 1+ goals
77%
Nagoya Grampus 2+ goals
43%
Nagoya Grampus 3+ goals
19%
Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals
66%
Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals
30%
Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Nagoya Grampus (draw refunded)
62%
Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nagoya Grampus at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.21 · 9 matches

Shimizu S-pulse away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.48 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nagoya Grampus attack 1.48 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.48

Shimizu S-pulse attack 0.98 + Nagoya Grampus defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Nagoya Grampus scores more
46%
level
26%
Shimizu S-pulse scores more
28%

Nagoya Grampus at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Nagoya Grampus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Shimizu S-pulse score first in only 17% of matches
  • Nagoya Grampus score first in only 33% of matches
  • Both teams score in 75% of Nagoya Grampus’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Nagoya Grampus
Balanced
Shimizu S-pulse
Balanced
50%Possession50%
77%Pass accuracy79%
12.3Shots11.9
1.60xGBiggest gap1.17
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Nagoya GrampusShimizu S-pulse

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

3
Nagoya Grampus
2
Draws
0
Shimizu S-pulse
Avg goals: 2BTTS: 40%
2–01–01–13–01–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Grampus
DDLLW
S-pulse
WLDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Nagoya Grampus face Shimizu S-pulse (J1 League)

J1 League returns with Nagoya Grampus hosting Shimizu S-pulse. Match starts August 8, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Nagoya Grampus host Shimizu S-pulse at Toyota Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.