Nagoya Grampus 1–1 FC Tokyo: Result & Stats

Nagoya Grampus

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

FC Tokyo

Y. Sato 65'

K. Endo 82'

8/31/2025

J1 League · Round 28Toyota Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Nagoya Grampus44%

×Draw25%

FC Tokyo31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nagoya GrampusExpected goals in this matchFC Tokyo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.27

Nagoya Grampus

1.56

FC Tokyo

1.27

Nagoya Grampus creates 23% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

1.51

creates per match

1.28

1.25

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Nagoya Grampus

1.51

FC Tokyo

1.28

allows per match

Nagoya Grampus

1.25

FC Tokyo

1.62

-0.06on par

finishing

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

Nagoya Grampus-0.06on par

FC Tokyo-0.28scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nagoya Grampus ↓

FC Tokyo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Nagoya Grampus or draw

69%

Nagoya Grampus or FC Tokyo

75%

Draw or FC Tokyo

56%

Winning margin

Nagoya Grampus wins by 2+

22%

FC Tokyo wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Nagoya Grampus 1+ goals

79%

Nagoya Grampus 2+ goals

46%

Nagoya Grampus 3+ goals

21%

FC Tokyo 1+ goals

72%

FC Tokyo 2+ goals

36%

FC Tokyo 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Nagoya Grampus (draw refunded)

59%

FC Tokyo (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nagoya Grampus at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.25 · 11 matches

FC Tokyo away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.62 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nagoya Grampus attack 1.51 + FC Tokyo defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.56

FC Tokyo attack 1.28 + Nagoya Grampus defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Nagoya Grampus scores more

44%

level

25%

FC Tokyo scores more

31%

Nagoya Grampus at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Nagoya Grampus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Y. Yamagishi

Nagoya Grampus · F

7.9

Match Events

37'

Keita Yamashita

56'

Marcos Guilherme← K. Tawaratsumida

56'

Marcelo Ryan← K. Yamashita

64'

Y. Asano← R. Izumi

65'

Y. Sato↳ Y. Yamagishi

73'

73'

74'

74'

77'

82'

90+2'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NagoyaFC

Overview

45%Possession55%

15Total Shots10

1.58Expected Goals (xG)1.76

6Corners3

9Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots10

2On Target4

9Off Target4

4Blocked2

10Inside Box6

5Outside Box4

Passing

45%Possession55%

321Total Passes398

231Accurate Passes330

72%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls10

0Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2

Match Recap: Nagoya Grampus vs FC Tokyo

Nagoya Grampus and FC Tokyo drew 1-1 in J1 League on August 31, 2025.

Goals: Y. Sato (65'), K. Endo (82').

FC Tokyo controlled possession (55%) and registered 10 shots to 15.

The match was played at Toyota Stadium in Toyota City.

Nagoya Grampus vs FC Tokyo — J1 League 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Nagoya Grampus vs FC Tokyo