Nagoya Grampus 3–1 FC Tokyo: Result & Stats

Nagoya Grampus

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

FC Tokyo

K. Junker 71', 66', 33' (pen)

R. Araki 78'

5/15/2024

J1 League · Round 14Toyota Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Nagoya Grampus46%

×Draw25%

FC Tokyo29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nagoya GrampusExpected goals in this matchFC Tokyo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.19

Nagoya Grampus

1.56

FC Tokyo

1.19

Nagoya Grampus creates 31% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

1.50

creates per match

1.18

1.20

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Nagoya Grampus

1.50

FC Tokyo

1.18

allows per match

Nagoya Grampus

1.20

FC Tokyo

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

Nagoya Grampus+0.00on par

FC Tokyo-0.18scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nagoya Grampus ↓

FC Tokyo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Nagoya Grampus or draw

71%

Nagoya Grampus or FC Tokyo

75%

Draw or FC Tokyo

54%

Winning margin

Nagoya Grampus wins by 2+

23%

FC Tokyo wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Nagoya Grampus 1+ goals

79%

Nagoya Grampus 2+ goals

46%

Nagoya Grampus 3+ goals

21%

FC Tokyo 1+ goals

70%

FC Tokyo 2+ goals

33%

FC Tokyo 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Nagoya Grampus (draw refunded)

61%

FC Tokyo (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nagoya Grampus at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

FC Tokyo away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.63 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nagoya Grampus attack 1.50 + FC Tokyo defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.56

FC Tokyo attack 1.18 + Nagoya Grampus defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Nagoya Grampus scores more

46%

level

25%

FC Tokyo scores more

29%

Nagoya Grampus at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Nagoya Grampus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77

K. Junker

Nagoya Grampus · F

8.9

Match Events

14'

17'

23'

28'

33'

K. JunkerPenalty

45+7'

Kennedy MikuniGoal cancelled

58'

R. Izumi← K. Nagai

62'

K. Matsuki← Diego Oliveira

62'

R. Araki← T. Nakagawa

66'

K. Junker↳ R. Izumi

68'

K. Masui← M. Ono

68'

K. Nakayama← T. Uchida

71'

Y. Nagatomo← S. Anzai

71'

Jája Silva← K. Tawaratsumida

71'

K. Junker↳ S. Inagaki

78'

R. Araki↳ Y. Nagatomo

81'

Yasuki Kimoto

82'

T. Yonemoto← T. Morishima

82'

Patric← K. Junker

85'

R. Harakawa← T. Ko

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NagoyaFC

Overview

33%Possession67%

8Total Shots12

1.72Expected Goals (xG)1.19

3Corners3

10Fouls11

Shots

8Total Shots12

4On Target6

4Off Target5

0Blocked1

6Inside Box7

2Outside Box5

Passing

33%Possession67%

278Total Passes565

180Accurate Passes467

65%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls11

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0