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FC Tokyo vs Nagoya Grampus — J1 League 2025

FC Tokyo
FC Tokyo
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Nagoya Grampus
Nagoya Grampus
9/14/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 30Japan National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

FC Tokyo48%
×Draw22%
Nagoya Grampus29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Tokyo
1.88
Nagoya Grampus
1.43

FC Tokyo creates 31% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

FC Tokyo
2.19
Nagoya Grampus
1.77

allows per match

FC Tokyo
1.08
Nagoya Grampus
1.56

finishing

FC Tokyo-0.02on par
Nagoya Grampus-0.17scores less

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tokyo ↓

Nagoya Grampus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

FC Tokyo or draw
71%
FC Tokyo or Nagoya Grampus
78%
Draw or Nagoya Grampus
52%

Winning margin

FC Tokyo wins by 2+
27%
Nagoya Grampus wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FC Tokyo 1+ goals
85%
FC Tokyo 2+ goals
56%
FC Tokyo 3+ goals
29%
Nagoya Grampus 1+ goals
76%
Nagoya Grampus 2+ goals
42%
Nagoya Grampus 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

FC Tokyo (draw refunded)
62%
Nagoya Grampus (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tokyo at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.08 · 6 matches

Nagoya Grampus away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.56 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tokyo attack 2.19 + Nagoya Grampus defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.88

Nagoya Grampus attack 1.77 + FC Tokyo defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC Tokyo scores more
48%
level
22%
Nagoya Grampus scores more
29%

FC Tokyo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FC Tokyo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: FC Tokyo 4–1 Nagoya Grampus

FC Tokyo beat Nagoya Grampus 4-1 in J1 League on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at Japan National Stadium in Tokyo.