Nagoya Grampus 0–2 Consadole Sapporo

Nagoya Grampus

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Consadole Sapporo

M. Suzuki 88'

Y. Komai 35'

10/19/2024

J1 League · Round 34Toyota Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Nagoya Grampus43%

×Draw25%

Consadole Sapporo32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nagoya GrampusExpected goals in this matchConsadole Sapporo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.27

Nagoya Grampus

1.52

Consadole Sapporo

1.27

Nagoya Grampus creates 20% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 8 away

1.36

creates per match

1.24

1.31

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Nagoya Grampus

1.36

Consadole Sapporo

1.24

allows per match

Nagoya Grampus

1.31

Consadole Sapporo

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.51scores more than expected

finishing

Nagoya Grampus+0.00on par

Consadole Sapporo+0.51scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nagoya Grampus ↓

Consadole Sapporo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Nagoya Grampus or draw

68%

Nagoya Grampus or Consadole Sapporo

75%

Draw or Consadole Sapporo

57%

Winning margin

Nagoya Grampus wins by 2+

21%

Consadole Sapporo wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Nagoya Grampus 1+ goals

78%

Nagoya Grampus 2+ goals

45%

Nagoya Grampus 3+ goals

20%

Consadole Sapporo 1+ goals

72%

Consadole Sapporo 2+ goals

36%

Consadole Sapporo 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Nagoya Grampus (draw refunded)

58%

Consadole Sapporo (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nagoya Grampus at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.31 · 33 matches

Consadole Sapporo away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.67 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nagoya Grampus attack 1.36 + Consadole Sapporo defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.52

Consadole Sapporo attack 1.24 + Nagoya Grampus defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Nagoya Grampus scores more

43%

level

25%

Consadole Sapporo scores more

32%

Nagoya Grampus at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nagoya Grampus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

Y. Komai

Consadole Sapporo · M

8.0

Match Events

22'

35'

37'

46'

53'

67'

R. Yamanaka← S. Tokumoto

68'

S. Sarachat← R. Aoki

68'

T. Nakamura← D. Suga

73'

H. Miyazawa← H. Shirai

74'

K. Nakayama← K. Shiihashi

74'

S. Baba← R. Takao

78'

T. Arano← L. Osaki

82'

T. Shigehiro← T. Uchida

82'

Patric← Y. Yamagishi

83'

Kennedy Mikuni

83'

Kennedy Mikuni

88'

M. Suzuki↳ Park Min-Gyu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NagoyaConsadole

Overview

55%Possession45%

13Total Shots15

1.53Expected Goals (xG)1.48

3Corners4

11Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots15

5On Target7

6Off Target5

2Blocked3

8Inside Box8

5Outside Box7

Passing

55%Possession45%

471Total Passes389

381Accurate Passes292

81%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls10

3Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

2Offsides2