Consadole Sapporo 1–2 Nagoya Grampus

Consadole Sapporo

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Nagoya Grampus

T. Kaneko 85'

Mateus 55'

K. Junker 1'

5/27/2023

J1 League · Round 15Sapporo Dome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Consadole Sapporo41%

×Draw26%

Nagoya Grampus33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Consadole SapporoExpected goals in this matchNagoya Grampus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.28

Consadole Sapporo

1.46

Nagoya Grampus

1.28

Consadole Sapporo creates 14% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 153 away

1.50

creates per match

1.15

1.41

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Consadole Sapporo

1.50

Nagoya Grampus

1.15

allows per match

Consadole Sapporo

1.41

Nagoya Grampus

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Consadole Sapporo+0.00on par

Nagoya Grampus+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Consadole Sapporo ↓

Nagoya Grampus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Consadole Sapporo or draw

67%

Consadole Sapporo or Nagoya Grampus

74%

Draw or Nagoya Grampus

59%

Winning margin

Consadole Sapporo wins by 2+

20%

Nagoya Grampus wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Consadole Sapporo 1+ goals

77%

Consadole Sapporo 2+ goals

43%

Consadole Sapporo 3+ goals

18%

Nagoya Grampus 1+ goals

72%

Nagoya Grampus 2+ goals

37%

Nagoya Grampus 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Consadole Sapporo (draw refunded)

56%

Nagoya Grampus (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Consadole Sapporo at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.41 · 118 matches

Nagoya Grampus away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.42 · 153 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Consadole Sapporo attack 1.50 + Nagoya Grampus defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.46

Nagoya Grampus attack 1.15 + Consadole Sapporo defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Consadole Sapporo scores more

41%

level

26%

Nagoya Grampus scores more

33%

Consadole Sapporo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Consadole Sapporo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

Y. Komai

Consadole Sapporo · F

7.5

Match Events

1'

K. Junker↳ K. Nagai

40'

Ryoya Morishita

43'

Daiki Suga

46'

Lucas Fernandes← D. Suga

55'

Mateus↳ R. Morishita

57'

T. Uchida← K. Junker

60'

T. Nakamura← A. Fukumori

62'

Kensuke Nagai

64'

Shunta Tanaka

65'

Takuji Yonemoto

70'

S. Sarachat← T. Arano

72'

N. Sakai← K. Nagai

72'

K. Nagasawa← T. Yonemoto

83'

K. Fukai← D. Okamura

85'

T. Kaneko↳ T. Ogashiwa

89'

Y. Nogami← Mateus

90+6'

Mitchell Langerak

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ConsadoleNagoya

Overview

71%Possession29%

15Total Shots4

7Corners2

14Fouls18

Shots

15Total Shots4

5On Target2

5Off Target1

5Blocked1

12Inside Box2

3Outside Box2

Passing

71%Possession29%

613Total Passes240

510Accurate Passes136

83%Pass Accuracy57%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls18

2Yellow Cards4

2Offsides0