Consadole Sapporo 1–2 Nagoya Grampus

Consadole Sapporo

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Nagoya Grampus

S. Baba 30'

K. Nagai 90'

T. Morishima 55'

4/3/2024

J1 League · Round 6Sapporo Dome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Consadole Sapporo41%

×Draw26%

Nagoya Grampus33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Consadole SapporoExpected goals in this matchNagoya Grampus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.28

Consadole Sapporo

1.46

Nagoya Grampus

1.28

Consadole Sapporo creates 14% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 153 away

1.50

creates per match

1.15

1.41

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Consadole Sapporo

1.50

Nagoya Grampus

1.15

allows per match

Consadole Sapporo

1.41

Nagoya Grampus

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Consadole Sapporo+0.00on par

Nagoya Grampus+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Consadole Sapporo ↓

Nagoya Grampus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Consadole Sapporo or draw

67%

Consadole Sapporo or Nagoya Grampus

74%

Draw or Nagoya Grampus

59%

Winning margin

Consadole Sapporo wins by 2+

20%

Nagoya Grampus wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Consadole Sapporo 1+ goals

77%

Consadole Sapporo 2+ goals

43%

Consadole Sapporo 3+ goals

18%

Nagoya Grampus 1+ goals

72%

Nagoya Grampus 2+ goals

37%

Nagoya Grampus 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Consadole Sapporo (draw refunded)

56%

Nagoya Grampus (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Consadole Sapporo at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.41 · 118 matches

Nagoya Grampus away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.42 · 153 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Consadole Sapporo attack 1.50 + Nagoya Grampus defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.46

Nagoya Grampus attack 1.15 + Consadole Sapporo defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Consadole Sapporo scores more

41%

level

26%

Nagoya Grampus scores more

33%

Consadole Sapporo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Consadole Sapporo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99

Y. Kobayashi

Consadole Sapporo · F

7.9

Match Events

26'

Takuma Arano

30'

S. Baba

31'

K. Nagai← Patric

37'

Haruki Yoshida

53'

Daiki Suga

55'

T. Morishima

58'

R. Takao← T. Nakamura

58'

T. Kondo← D. Suga

64'

N. Sakai← K. Masui

64'

T. Kubo← R. Yamanaka

70'

T. Hasegawa← Y. Kobayashi

74'

K. Tanaka← H. Miyazawa

81'

T. Yonemoto← K. Shiihashi

81'

T. Uchida← R. Izumi

90+5'

Kennedy Mikuni

90'

K. Nagai↳ A. Kawazura

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ConsadoleNagoya

Overview

61%Possession39%

13Total Shots6

0.88Expected Goals (xG)1.80

8Corners1

12Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots6

2On Target4

9Off Target1

2Blocked1

8Inside Box4

5Outside Box2

Passing

61%Possession39%

633Total Passes418

535Accurate Passes311

85%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Consadole Sapporo vs Nagoya Grampus

Nagoya Grampus beat Consadole Sapporo 2-1 in J1 League on April 3, 2024.

Goals: S. Baba (30'), T. Morishima (55'), K. Nagai (90').

Consadole Sapporo controlled possession (61%) and registered 13 shots to 6.

The match was played at Sapporo Dome in Sapporo.

Consadole Sapporo vs Nagoya Grampus — J1 League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Consadole Sapporo vs Nagoya Grampus