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Naft Maysan vs Al Minaa Basra — Iraqi League 2025

Naft Maysan
Naft Maysan
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Al Minaa Basra
Al Minaa Basra
D. Gueye Dieme 85' (pen)
I. Atiemwen 65', 7'
R. Majji 60'
9/14/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 1Maysan International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Naft Maysan35%
×Draw29%
Al Minaa Basra36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft Maysan
1.09
Al Minaa Basra
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 34 away

creates per match

Naft Maysan
0.92
Al Minaa Basra
0.85

allows per match

Naft Maysan
1.38
Al Minaa Basra
1.26

finishing

Naft Maysan+0.00on par
Al Minaa Basra+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Maysan ↓

Al Minaa Basra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Naft Maysan or draw
64%
Naft Maysan or Al Minaa Basra
71%
Draw or Al Minaa Basra
65%

Winning margin

Naft Maysan wins by 2+
14%
Al Minaa Basra wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Naft Maysan 1+ goals
66%
Naft Maysan 2+ goals
30%
Naft Maysan 3+ goals
10%
Al Minaa Basra 1+ goals
67%
Al Minaa Basra 2+ goals
30%
Al Minaa Basra 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Naft Maysan (draw refunded)
49%
Al Minaa Basra (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Maysan at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.38 · 26 matches

Al Minaa Basra away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Maysan attack 0.92 + Al Minaa Basra defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.09

Al Minaa Basra attack 0.85 + Naft Maysan defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Naft Maysan scores more
35%
level
29%
Al Minaa Basra scores more
36%

Al Minaa Basra at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Al Minaa Basra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
I. Atiemwen
60'
R. Majji
65'
I. Atiemwen
85'
D. Gueye DiemePenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naft Maysan vs Al Minaa Basra

Al Minaa Basra beat Naft Maysan 3-1 in Iraqi League on September 14, 2025.

Goals: I. Atiemwen (7', 65'), R. Majji (60'), D. Gueye Dieme (85' pen).

The match was played at Maysan International Stadium in Al Amarah.