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Naft Maysan vs Al Minaa Basra — Iraqi League 2025

Naft Maysan
Naft Maysan
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Al Minaa Basra
Al Minaa Basra
O. Afolabi 41'
Alaa Saad 13' (pen)
6/13/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 35Maysan International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Naft Maysan39%
×Draw28%
Al Minaa Basra32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft Maysan
1.22
Al Minaa Basra
1.08

Naft Maysan creates 13% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 42 away

creates per match

Naft Maysan
1.07
Al Minaa Basra
0.88

allows per match

Naft Maysan
1.29
Al Minaa Basra
1.36

finishing

Naft Maysan+0.00on par
Al Minaa Basra+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Maysan ↓

Al Minaa Basra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Naft Maysan or draw
68%
Naft Maysan or Al Minaa Basra
72%
Draw or Al Minaa Basra
61%

Winning margin

Naft Maysan wins by 2+
17%
Al Minaa Basra wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Naft Maysan 1+ goals
70%
Naft Maysan 2+ goals
34%
Naft Maysan 3+ goals
12%
Al Minaa Basra 1+ goals
66%
Al Minaa Basra 2+ goals
29%
Al Minaa Basra 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Naft Maysan (draw refunded)
55%
Al Minaa Basra (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Maysan at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.29 · 42 matches

Al Minaa Basra away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.36 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Maysan attack 1.07 + Al Minaa Basra defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.22

Al Minaa Basra attack 0.88 + Naft Maysan defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Naft Maysan scores more
39%
level
28%
Al Minaa Basra scores more
32%

Naft Maysan at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Naft Maysan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
Alaa SaadPenalty
41'
O. Afolabi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Naft Maysan 2–0 Al Minaa Basra

Naft Maysan beat Al Minaa Basra 2-0 in Iraqi League on June 13, 2025.

Goals: Alaa Saad (13' pen), O. Afolabi (41').

The match was played at Maysan International Stadium in Al Amarah.