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Al Minaa Basra vs Naft Maysan — Iraqi League 2025

Al Minaa Basra
Al Minaa Basra
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Naft Maysan
Naft Maysan
F. Abdul 32'
4/5/2026Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Al Minaa Basra40%
×Draw27%
Naft Maysan33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Minaa Basra
1.30
Naft Maysan
1.17

Al Minaa Basra creates 11% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 44 away

creates per match

Al Minaa Basra
1.05
Naft Maysan
1.18

allows per match

Al Minaa Basra
1.15
Naft Maysan
1.55

finishing

Al Minaa Basra+0.00on par
Naft Maysan+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Minaa Basra ↓

Naft Maysan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Al Minaa Basra or draw
67%
Al Minaa Basra or Naft Maysan
73%
Draw or Naft Maysan
60%

Winning margin

Al Minaa Basra wins by 2+
18%
Naft Maysan wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Al Minaa Basra 1+ goals
73%
Al Minaa Basra 2+ goals
37%
Al Minaa Basra 3+ goals
14%
Naft Maysan 1+ goals
69%
Naft Maysan 2+ goals
33%
Naft Maysan 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Al Minaa Basra (draw refunded)
54%
Naft Maysan (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Minaa Basra at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.15 · 40 matches

Naft Maysan away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.55 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Minaa Basra attack 1.05 + Naft Maysan defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.30

Naft Maysan attack 1.18 + Al Minaa Basra defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Al Minaa Basra scores more
40%
level
27%
Naft Maysan scores more
33%

Al Minaa Basra at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Al Minaa Basra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
F. Abdul↳ N. Sioud

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Minaa Basra vs Naft Maysan

Naft Maysan beat Al Minaa Basra 1-0 in Iraqi League on April 5, 2026.

Goals: F. Abdul (32').