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Naestved vs Hillerød — 1. Division 2018

Naestved
Naestved
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Hillerød
Hillerød
9/24/20231. Division1. Division · Round 10Tintshop Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Naestved40%
×Draw25%
Hillerød34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naestved
1.45
Hillerød
1.31

Naestved creates 11% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 64 away

creates per match

Naestved
1.34
Hillerød
1.47

allows per match

Naestved
1.15
Hillerød
1.56

finishing

Naestved+0.00on par
Hillerød+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naestved ↓

Hillerød →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Naestved or draw
66%
Naestved or Hillerød
75%
Draw or Hillerød
60%

Winning margin

Naestved wins by 2+
19%
Hillerød wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Naestved 1+ goals
77%
Naestved 2+ goals
42%
Naestved 3+ goals
18%
Hillerød 1+ goals
73%
Hillerød 2+ goals
38%
Hillerød 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Naestved (draw refunded)
54%
Hillerød (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naestved at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.15 · 65 matches

Hillerød away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.56 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naestved attack 1.34 + Hillerød defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.45

Hillerød attack 1.47 + Naestved defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Naestved scores more
40%
level
25%
Hillerød scores more
34%

Naestved at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Naestved will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Naestved 2–2 Hillerød

Naestved and Hillerød drew 2-2 in 1. Division on September 24, 2023.

The match was played at Tintshop Park in Næstved.