Hillerød 2–5 Naestved: Result & Stats

Hillerød

FT

2 – 5

HT: 1 – 0

Naestved

2/12/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Hillerød40%

×Draw21%

Naestved40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HillerødExpected goals in this matchNaestved

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

Hillerød

2.00

Naestved

2.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

2.00

creates per match

1.50

2.50

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Hillerød

2.00

Naestved

1.50

allows per match

Hillerød

2.50

Naestved

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hillerød+0.00on par

Naestved+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hillerød ↓

Naestved →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Hillerød or draw

60%

Hillerød or Naestved

79%

Draw or Naestved

60%

Winning margin

Hillerød wins by 2+

22%

Naestved wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Hillerød 1+ goals

86%

Hillerød 2+ goals

59%

Hillerød 3+ goals

32%

Naestved 1+ goals

86%

Naestved 2+ goals

59%

Naestved 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Hillerød (draw refunded)

50%

Naestved (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hillerød at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

Naestved away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hillerød attack 2.00 + Naestved defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Naestved attack 1.50 + Hillerød defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hillerød scores more

40%

level

21%

Naestved scores more

40%

Hillerød at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hillerød will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff