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Hillerød vs Naestved — 1. Division 2018

Hillerød
Hillerød
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Naestved
Naestved
11/6/20231. Division1. Division · Round 15Right to Dream Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Hillerød51%
×Draw24%
Naestved25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hillerød
1.67
Naestved
1.10

Hillerød creates 52% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 64 away

creates per match

Hillerød
1.55
Naestved
1.06

allows per match

Hillerød
1.14
Naestved
1.78

finishing

Hillerød+0.00on par
Naestved+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hillerød ↓

Naestved →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Hillerød or draw
75%
Hillerød or Naestved
76%
Draw or Naestved
49%

Winning margin

Hillerød wins by 2+
27%
Naestved wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Hillerød 1+ goals
81%
Hillerød 2+ goals
50%
Hillerød 3+ goals
23%
Naestved 1+ goals
67%
Naestved 2+ goals
30%
Naestved 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Hillerød (draw refunded)
67%
Naestved (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hillerød at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.14 · 64 matches

Naestved away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.78 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hillerød attack 1.55 + Naestved defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.67

Naestved attack 1.06 + Hillerød defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Hillerød scores more
51%
level
24%
Naestved scores more
25%

Hillerød at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Hillerød will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hillerød vs Naestved

Hillerød beat Naestved 1-0 in 1. Division on November 6, 2023.

The match was played at Right to Dream Park in Farum.