Nacional vs Moreirense — Primeira Liga 2010
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 28+ matches
Nacional36%
Moreirense35%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 28 home / 33 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under60
- Over40
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No54
- Yes46
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Nacional ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Nacional at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.32 · 28 matches
Moreirense away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.17 · 33 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Nacional attack 1.12 + Moreirense defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.15
Moreirense attack 0.93 + Nacional defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.13
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 36%?"
Nacional at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 36% does not mean "Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
FC Porto
Sporting CP
Benfica
SC Braga
Famalicao
GIL VicenteMoreirense
Guimaraes
Arouca
Estoril
Alverca
Santa Clara
Rio AveNacional
Casa Pia
Estrela
Tondela
AVS
TorreenseIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Nacional host Moreirense on Saturday, 14 December 2024 at 18:00. The match is part of the Primeira Liga 2010/2011 season.
Match Recap: Nacional vs Moreirense
Nacional beat Moreirense 1-0 in Primeira Liga on December 14, 2024.
Goals: José Gomes (55').
Moreirense controlled possession (56%) and registered 4 shots to 12.
The match was played at Estádio da Madeira in Ilha da Madeira.