Moreirense 1–1 Nacional: Result & Stats

Moreirense

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Nacional

Maranhão 63'

Zé Vitor 80'

4/27/2025

Primeira Liga · Round 31Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Moreirense38%

×Draw28%

Nacional33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MoreirenseExpected goals in this matchNacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.11

Moreirense

1.21

Nacional

1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 26 away

0.81

creates per match

0.95

1.27

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Moreirense

0.81

Nacional

0.95

allows per match

Moreirense

1.27

Nacional

1.61

+0.38scores more than expected

finishing

-0.45scores less than expected

finishing

Moreirense+0.38scores more

Nacional-0.45scores less

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moreirense ↓

Nacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Moreirense or draw

67%

Moreirense or Nacional

72%

Draw or Nacional

62%

Winning margin

Moreirense wins by 2+

16%

Nacional wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Moreirense 1+ goals

70%

Moreirense 2+ goals

34%

Moreirense 3+ goals

12%

Nacional 1+ goals

67%

Nacional 2+ goals

30%

Nacional 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Moreirense (draw refunded)

53%

Nacional (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moreirense at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.27 · 32 matches

Nacional away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.61 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moreirense attack 0.81 + Nacional defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.21

Nacional attack 0.95 + Moreirense defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Moreirense scores more

38%

level

28%

Nacional scores more

33%

Moreirense at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Moreirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

38

Zé Vitor

Nacional · D

8.0

Match Events

50'

Benny← Rúben Ismael

61'

Dudu Teodora← F. Yamada

63'

Maranhão↳ Benny

66'

J. Antonisse← Maranhão

66'

Guilherme Schettine← Cedric Teguia

74'

C. Labidi← Daniel Penha

74'

Rúben Macedo← Paulinho Bóia

79'

Bernardo Martins

80'

Zé Vitor↳ Gustavo Garcia

88'

Luís Asué← Joel Jorquera

88'

André Sousa← Luís Esteves

88'

João Aurélio← J. Tagueu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MoreirenseNacional

Overview

58%Possession42%

8Total Shots18

0.49Expected Goals (xG)0.52

2Corners5

10Fouls13

Shots

8Total Shots18

3On Target4

3Off Target9

2Blocked5

3Inside Box11

5Outside Box7

Passing

58%Possession42%

440Total Passes314

368Accurate Passes246

84%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

-0.44Goals Prevented-0.44

Discipline

10Fouls13

1Yellow Cards0

0Offsides3