Nacional vs Estoril — Primeira Liga 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 20+ matches
Nacional43%
Estoril31%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Nacional creates 22% more chances
Season form · 20 home / 35 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes53
- No47
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Nacional ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Nacional at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.24 · 20 matches
Estoril away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.76 · 35 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Nacional attack 1.14 + Estoril defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.45
Estoril attack 1.13 + Nacional defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.19
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Nacional at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
FC Porto
Sporting CP
Benfica
SC Braga
Famalicao
GIL Vicente
Moreirense
Guimaraes
AroucaEstoril
Alverca
Santa Clara
Rio AveNacional
Casa Pia
Estrela
Tondela
AVS
TorreenseIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Nacional host Estoril on Saturday, 15 February 2025 at 17:00. The match is part of the Primeira Liga 2026/2027 season.
Primeira Liga: Nacional 2–2 Estoril
Nacional and Estoril drew 2-2 in Primeira Liga on February 15, 2025.
Goals: André Lacximicant (4'), Dudu Teodora (45+4' pen), Daniel Penha (52'), F. Bacher (90+3').
Estoril controlled possession (51%) and registered 7 shots to 18.
The match was played at Estádio da Madeira in Ilha da Madeira.