Estoril 1–0 Nacional: Result & Stats

Estoril

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Nacional

João Carvalho 19'

9/15/2024

Primeira Liga · Round 5Estádio António Coimbra da Mota

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Estoril39%

×Draw26%

Nacional35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EstorilExpected goals in this matchNacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.31

Estoril

1.38

Nacional

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 17 away

1.22

creates per match

1.00

1.62

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Estoril

1.22

Nacional

1.00

allows per match

Estoril

1.62

Nacional

1.54

+0.32scores more than expected

finishing

-0.47scores less than expected

finishing

Estoril+0.32scores more

Nacional-0.47scores less

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estoril ↓

Nacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Estoril or draw

65%

Estoril or Nacional

74%

Draw or Nacional

61%

Winning margin

Estoril wins by 2+

18%

Nacional wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Estoril 1+ goals

75%

Estoril 2+ goals

40%

Estoril 3+ goals

16%

Nacional 1+ goals

73%

Nacional 2+ goals

38%

Nacional 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Estoril (draw refunded)

52%

Nacional (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estoril at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.62 · 35 matches

Nacional away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.54 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estoril attack 1.22 + Nacional defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.38

Nacional attack 1.00 + Estoril defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Estoril scores more

39%

level

26%

Nacional scores more

35%

Estoril at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Estoril will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

Gustavo Garcia

Nacional · D

8.0

Match Events

5'

Pedro Álvaro

19'

João Carvalho

48'

A. Marqués← Hélder Costa

52'

Michel Costa

54'

Isaac← A. Appiah

54'

Bruno Costa← Rúben Macedo

62'

Wagner Pina← Michel

62'

Jandro Orellana← Pedro Carvalho

63'

Dyego Sousa← Tiago Reis

65'

Ulisses

69'

Ze Vitor

70'

Léo Santos← Matheus Dias

70'

Gabriel Santos← Daniel Penha

76'

E. Mangala← Y. Begraoui

76'

Fabrício Garcia← Xeka

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EstorilNacional

Overview

52%Possession48%

11Total Shots16

0.68Expected Goals (xG)2.14

3Corners4

22Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots16

3On Target3

6Off Target11

2Blocked2

6Inside Box10

5Outside Box6

Passing

52%Possession48%

391Total Passes352

304Accurate Passes279

78%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

-0.76Goals Prevented-0.76

Discipline

22Fouls12

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

1Offsides2