Nacional Asuncion 1–1 Club Guarani: Result & Stats

Nacional Asuncion

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Club Guarani

C. R. Santa 54'

R. Torales 83'

3/1/2026

Division Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 8Estadio Arsenio Erico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Nacional Asuncion37%

×Draw28%

Club Guarani35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nacional AsuncionExpected goals in this matchClub Guarani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.14

Nacional Asuncion

1.18

Club Guarani

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 22 away

1.41

creates per match

1.27

1.00

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Nacional Asuncion

1.41

Club Guarani

1.27

allows per match

Nacional Asuncion

1.00

Club Guarani

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nacional Asuncion+0.00on par

Club Guarani+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional Asuncion ↓

Club Guarani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Nacional Asuncion or draw

65%

Nacional Asuncion or Club Guarani

72%

Draw or Club Guarani

63%

Winning margin

Nacional Asuncion wins by 2+

16%

Club Guarani wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Nacional Asuncion 1+ goals

69%

Nacional Asuncion 2+ goals

33%

Nacional Asuncion 3+ goals

12%

Club Guarani 1+ goals

68%

Club Guarani 2+ goals

32%

Club Guarani 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Nacional Asuncion (draw refunded)

51%

Club Guarani (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional Asuncion at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.00 · 22 matches

Club Guarani away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.95 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional Asuncion attack 1.41 + Club Guarani defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.18

Club Guarani attack 1.27 + Nacional Asuncion defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Nacional Asuncion scores more

37%

level

28%

Club Guarani scores more

35%

Nacional Asuncion at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Nacional Asuncion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

I. Valdez

Nacional Asuncion · M

8.2

Match Events

6'

Derlis Rodríguez

10'

Carlos Espinola

54'

C. R. Santa↳ I. Valdez

58'

R. Prieto← O. Gaona Lugo

58'

D. J. Colman Escobar← F. Jara

58'

F. Fernandez← M. Lopez

58'

R. Torales← D. Fernandez

68'

I. Bailone← C. R. Santa

68'

L. Caceres← A. D. Canete Torres

78'

Agustín Manzur

81'

Jhon Sanchez← D. Perez

81'

C. E. Mino Amarilla← I. Ramirez

83'

S. Torales← A. Samudio

83'

R. Torales↳ S. Zaracho

88'

Agustín Manzur

88'

Agustín Manzur

88'

J. Llano← D. Rodriguez

90+1'

Roberto Ramírez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NacionalClub

Overview

53%Possession47%

10Total Shots13

1.11Expected Goals (xG)0.64

4Corners5

11Fouls12

Shots

10Total Shots13

1On Target3

3Off Target4

6Blocked6

6Inside Box5

4Outside Box8

Passing

53%Possession47%

398Total Passes353

307Accurate Passes266

77%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

11Fouls12

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

0Offsides1