Club Guarani 2–0 Nacional Asuncion: Result & Stats

Club Guarani

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Nacional Asuncion

N. Romero 88'

I. Ramirez 78' (pen)

9/21/2025

League #252 · Clausura - 13Estadio Rogelio Livieres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Club Guarani64%

×Draw22%

Nacional Asuncion13%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club GuaraniExpected goals in this matchNacional Asuncion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.67

Club Guarani

1.79

Nacional Asuncion

0.67

Club Guarani creates 167% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 3 away

1.91

creates per match

0.33

1.00

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Club Guarani

1.91

Nacional Asuncion

0.33

allows per match

Club Guarani

1.00

Nacional Asuncion

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Guarani+0.00on par

Nacional Asuncion+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Guarani ↓

Nacional Asuncion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Club Guarani or draw

87%

Club Guarani or Nacional Asuncion

78%

Draw or Nacional Asuncion

36%

Winning margin

Club Guarani wins by 2+

38%

Nacional Asuncion wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Club Guarani 1+ goals

83%

Club Guarani 2+ goals

53%

Club Guarani 3+ goals

26%

Nacional Asuncion 1+ goals

49%

Nacional Asuncion 2+ goals

15%

Nacional Asuncion 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Club Guarani (draw refunded)

83%

Nacional Asuncion (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Guarani at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Nacional Asuncion away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Guarani attack 1.91 + Nacional Asuncion defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.79

Nacional Asuncion attack 0.33 + Club Guarani defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Club Guarani scores more

64%

level

22%

Nacional Asuncion scores more

13%

Club Guarani at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Club Guarani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

I. Ramirez

Club Guarani · F

7.9

Match Events

17'

Thomas Gutiérrez

24'

Carlos Arrua

32'

F. Franco← A. D. Canete Torres

45+7'

Aldo Maiz

59'

L. Martinez← V. Cabanas

63'

R. Prieto← I. Valdez

63'

H. Benitez← C. Arrua

67'

Luis Martinez

72'

P. Coronel← T. Servin

72'

R. Torales← F. Fernandez

75'

Thomas Gutiérrez

75'

Thomas Gutiérrez

78'

Ivan Ramirez

78'

I. RamirezPenalty

79'

G. Benitez← O. Gaona Lugo

86'

L. Gomez← A. Maiz

86'

N. Romero← D. Rodriguez

88'

N. Romero↳ I. Ramirez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubNacional

Overview

51%Possession49%

9Total Shots16

1.25Expected Goals (xG)0.56

3Corners5

11Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots16

3On Target2

4Off Target5

2Blocked9

4Inside Box6

5Outside Box10

Passing

51%Possession49%

351Total Passes322

246Accurate Passes213

70%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls12

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

5Offsides0