Club Guarani 0–1 Nacional Asuncion: Result & Stats

Club Guarani

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Nacional Asuncion

H. A. Benitez 82'

5/3/2026

Division Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 19Estadio Rogelio Livieres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Club Guarani40%

×Draw28%

Nacional Asuncion33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club GuaraniExpected goals in this matchNacional Asuncion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.13

Club Guarani

1.27

Nacional Asuncion

1.13

Club Guarani creates 12% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 56 away

1.25

creates per match

1.07

1.18

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Club Guarani

1.25

Nacional Asuncion

1.07

allows per match

Club Guarani

1.18

Nacional Asuncion

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Guarani+0.00on par

Nacional Asuncion+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Guarani ↓

Nacional Asuncion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Club Guarani or draw

67%

Club Guarani or Nacional Asuncion

72%

Draw or Nacional Asuncion

60%

Winning margin

Club Guarani wins by 2+

18%

Nacional Asuncion wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Club Guarani 1+ goals

72%

Club Guarani 2+ goals

36%

Club Guarani 3+ goals

14%

Nacional Asuncion 1+ goals

68%

Nacional Asuncion 2+ goals

31%

Nacional Asuncion 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Club Guarani (draw refunded)

55%

Nacional Asuncion (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Guarani at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.18 · 57 matches

Nacional Asuncion away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.30 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Guarani attack 1.25 + Nacional Asuncion defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.27

Nacional Asuncion attack 1.07 + Club Guarani defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Club Guarani scores more

40%

level

28%

Nacional Asuncion scores more

33%

Club Guarani at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Club Guarani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

36

L. Martinez

Club Guarani · M

7.3

Match Events

46'

G. Benitez← S. Vargas

61'

J. Llano← M. Lopez

62'

R. Torales← I. Ramirez

67'

I. Bailone← C. R. Santa

67'

H. A. Benitez← R. Prieto

71'

A. Manzur← P. Coronel

78'

A. Samudio← O. Gaona Lugo

82'

H. A. Benitez↳ J. Feliu

84'

K. Ferreira Gonzalez← D. Fernandez

84'

J. Centurion← T. Servin

89'

T. Gutierrez← S. Torales

90+3'

Patricio Tanda

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubNacional

Overview

47%Possession53%

8Total Shots9

2Corners5

10Fouls10

Shots

8Total Shots9

0On Target3

3Off Target5

5Blocked1

2Inside Box6

6Outside Box3

Passing

47%Possession53%

358Total Passes420

275Accurate Passes305

77%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

10Fouls10

1Yellow Cards0

3Offsides1