Nacional Asuncion 1–4 Club Guarani: Result & Stats

Nacional Asuncion

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Club Guarani

2/2/2024

Division Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 4Estadio Arsenio Erico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Nacional Asuncion34%

×Draw28%

Club Guarani38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nacional AsuncionExpected goals in this matchClub Guarani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.23

Nacional Asuncion

1.14

Club Guarani

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 97 home / 97 away

1.22

creates per match

1.39

1.08

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Nacional Asuncion

1.22

Club Guarani

1.39

allows per match

Nacional Asuncion

1.08

Club Guarani

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nacional Asuncion+0.00on par

Club Guarani+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional Asuncion ↓

Club Guarani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Nacional Asuncion or draw

62%

Nacional Asuncion or Club Guarani

72%

Draw or Club Guarani

66%

Winning margin

Nacional Asuncion wins by 2+

14%

Club Guarani wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Nacional Asuncion 1+ goals

68%

Nacional Asuncion 2+ goals

32%

Nacional Asuncion 3+ goals

11%

Club Guarani 1+ goals

71%

Club Guarani 2+ goals

35%

Club Guarani 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Nacional Asuncion (draw refunded)

47%

Club Guarani (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional Asuncion at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.08 · 97 matches

Club Guarani away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.06 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional Asuncion attack 1.22 + Club Guarani defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.14

Club Guarani attack 1.39 + Nacional Asuncion defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Nacional Asuncion scores more

34%

level

28%

Club Guarani scores more

38%

Club Guarani at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Club Guarani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff