NAC Breda 1–2 AZ Alkmaar: Result & Stats

NAC Breda

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

AZ Alkmaar

E. Ómarsson 12'

M. de Wit 90+2'

T. Parrott 76'

12/15/2024

Eredivisie · Round 16Rat Verlegh Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

NAC Breda36%

×Draw26%

AZ Alkmaar39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NAC BredaExpected goals in this matchAZ Alkmaar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.40

NAC Breda

1.33

AZ Alkmaar

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 28 away

1.18

creates per match

1.47

1.33

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

NAC Breda

1.18

AZ Alkmaar

1.47

allows per match

NAC Breda

1.33

AZ Alkmaar

1.49

-0.51scores less than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

NAC Breda-0.51scores less

AZ Alkmaar-0.11scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NAC Breda ↓

AZ Alkmaar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

NAC Breda or draw

61%

NAC Breda or AZ Alkmaar

74%

Draw or AZ Alkmaar

64%

Winning margin

NAC Breda wins by 2+

16%

AZ Alkmaar wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

NAC Breda 1+ goals

74%

NAC Breda 2+ goals

38%

NAC Breda 3+ goals

15%

AZ Alkmaar 1+ goals

75%

AZ Alkmaar 2+ goals

41%

AZ Alkmaar 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

NAC Breda (draw refunded)

48%

AZ Alkmaar (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NAC Breda at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

AZ Alkmaar away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.49 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NAC Breda attack 1.18 + AZ Alkmaar defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.33

AZ Alkmaar attack 1.47 + NAC Breda defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

NAC Breda scores more

36%

level

26%

AZ Alkmaar scores more

39%

AZ Alkmaar at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "AZ Alkmaar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

34

M. de Wit

AZ Alkmaar · D

7.9

Match Events

12'

E. Ómarsson↳ B. Kemper

30'

Leo Greiml

46'

W. Goes← B. Martins Indi

46'

J. Clasie← Alexandre Penetra

46'

M. Lahdo← K. Smit

62'

Maximilien Balard

67'

C. Staring← R. Paula

70'

M. Meerdink← S. Mijnans

71'

Peer Koopmeiners

72'

D. Janošek← C. Leemans

72'

M. Garbett← F. Oldrup Jensen

76'

T. Parrott↳ P. Koopmeiners

77'

D. Kasius← S. Maikuma

83'

T. Kongolo← E. Ómarsson

85'

85'

90+4'

90+4'

90+7'

90+5'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NACAZ

Overview

35%Possession65%

4Total Shots15

0.73Expected Goals (xG)1.45

1Corners7

15Fouls9

Shots

4Total Shots15

2On Target6

2Off Target5

0Blocked4

2Inside Box11

2Outside Box4

Passing

35%Possession65%

287Total Passes535

205Accurate Passes456

71%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

0.11Goals Prevented0.11

Discipline

15Fouls9

5Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

1Offsides0

Match Recap: NAC Breda vs AZ Alkmaar

AZ Alkmaar beat NAC Breda 2-1 in Eredivisie on December 15, 2024.

Goals: E. Ómarsson (12'), T. Parrott (76'), M. de Wit (90+2').

AZ Alkmaar controlled possession (65%) and registered 15 shots to 4.

The match was played at Rat Verlegh Stadion in Breda.

NAC Breda vs AZ Alkmaar — Eredivisie 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: NAC Breda vs AZ Alkmaar