AZ Alkmaar 1–1 NAC Breda: Result & Stats

AZ Alkmaar

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

NAC Breda

4/24/2025

Eredivisie · Round 30AFAS Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

AZ Alkmaar54%

×Draw22%

NAC Breda24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AZ AlkmaarExpected goals in this matchNAC Breda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.20

AZ Alkmaar

1.90

NAC Breda

1.20

AZ Alkmaar creates 58% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 10 away

1.88

creates per match

1.29

1.11

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

AZ Alkmaar

1.88

NAC Breda

1.29

allows per match

AZ Alkmaar

1.11

NAC Breda

1.91

+0.43scores more than expected

finishing

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

AZ Alkmaar+0.43scores more

NAC Breda-0.29scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AZ Alkmaar ↓

NAC Breda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

AZ Alkmaar or draw

76%

AZ Alkmaar or NAC Breda

78%

Draw or NAC Breda

46%

Winning margin

AZ Alkmaar wins by 2+

31%

NAC Breda wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

AZ Alkmaar 1+ goals

85%

AZ Alkmaar 2+ goals

56%

AZ Alkmaar 3+ goals

29%

NAC Breda 1+ goals

70%

NAC Breda 2+ goals

34%

NAC Breda 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

AZ Alkmaar (draw refunded)

69%

NAC Breda (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AZ Alkmaar at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.11 · 29 matches

NAC Breda away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.91 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AZ Alkmaar attack 1.88 + NAC Breda defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.90

NAC Breda attack 1.29 + AZ Alkmaar defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

AZ Alkmaar scores more

54%

level

22%

NAC Breda scores more

24%

AZ Alkmaar at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "AZ Alkmaar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff