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NAC Breda vs AZ Alkmaar — Eredivisie 2026

NAC Breda
NAC Breda
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar
A. Gudmundsson 90'
G. Til 54', 33'
2/8/2019EredivisieEredivisie · Round 21Rat Verlegh Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

NAC Breda37%
×Draw25%
AZ Alkmaar38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NAC Breda
1.37
AZ Alkmaar
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 27 away

creates per match

NAC Breda
1.22
AZ Alkmaar
1.47

allows per match

NAC Breda
1.32
AZ Alkmaar
1.52

finishing

NAC Breda-0.58scores less
AZ Alkmaar-0.14scores less

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NAC Breda ↓

AZ Alkmaar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

NAC Breda or draw
62%
NAC Breda or AZ Alkmaar
75%
Draw or AZ Alkmaar
63%

Winning margin

NAC Breda wins by 2+
17%
AZ Alkmaar wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

NAC Breda 1+ goals
75%
NAC Breda 2+ goals
40%
NAC Breda 3+ goals
16%
AZ Alkmaar 1+ goals
75%
AZ Alkmaar 2+ goals
41%
AZ Alkmaar 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

NAC Breda (draw refunded)
49%
AZ Alkmaar (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NAC Breda at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.32 · 11 matches

AZ Alkmaar away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.52 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NAC Breda attack 1.22 + AZ Alkmaar defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.37

AZ Alkmaar attack 1.47 + NAC Breda defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

NAC Breda scores more
37%
level
25%
AZ Alkmaar scores more
38%

AZ Alkmaar at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "AZ Alkmaar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
A. MaherAZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar · M
8.4

Match Events

22'
Karol Mets
25'
Guus Til
33'
G. Til↳ J. Svensson
46'
P. van Anholt← K. Karami
47'
Pele Van Anholt
54'
G. Til↳ C. Stengs
64'
A. Gudmundsson← B. Johnsen
69'
M. El Allouchi← G. Nijholt
78'
G. Korte← S. Kaikai
90'
A. Gudmundsson↳ O. Idrissi

Possession

41%NAC

Shots

10NAC

Pass accuracy

47%NAC

Statistics

NACAZ
Overview
41%Possession59%
10Total Shots16
1Corners5
10Fouls11
Shots
10Total Shots16
3On Target8
5Off Target6
2Blocked2
5Inside Box10
5Outside Box6
Passing
41%Possession59%
372Total Passes520
269Accurate Passes425
72%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls11
2Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
3Offsides2

Eredivisie: NAC Breda 0–3 AZ Alkmaar

AZ Alkmaar beat NAC Breda 3-0 in Eredivisie on February 8, 2019.

Goals: G. Til (33', 54'), A. Gudmundsson (90').

AZ Alkmaar controlled possession (59%) and registered 16 shots to 10.

The match was played at Rat Verlegh Stadion in Breda.