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MVV vs De Graafschap — Eerste Divisie 2018

MVV
MVV
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
De Graafschap
De Graafschap
11/8/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 14De Geusselt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

MVV38%
×Draw22%
De Graafschap40%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MVV
1.76
De Graafschap
1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

MVV
1.39
De Graafschap
1.73

allows per match

MVV
1.89
De Graafschap
2.13

finishing

MVV+0.21scores more
De Graafschap-0.06on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MVV ↓

De Graafschap →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

MVV or draw
60%
MVV or De Graafschap
78%
Draw or De Graafschap
62%

Winning margin

MVV wins by 2+
19%
De Graafschap wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

MVV 1+ goals
83%
MVV 2+ goals
52%
MVV 3+ goals
26%
De Graafschap 1+ goals
84%
De Graafschap 2+ goals
54%
De Graafschap 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

MVV (draw refunded)
49%
De Graafschap (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MVV at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.89 · 5 matches

De Graafschap away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.13 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MVV attack 1.39 + De Graafschap defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.76

De Graafschap attack 1.73 + MVV defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

MVV scores more
38%
level
22%
De Graafschap scores more
40%

De Graafschap at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "De Graafschap will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
R. MatthysMVVMVV · G
10.0

Match Events

55'
Tim Zeegers
58'
Ralf Seuntjens
66'
Jeffrey Fortes
66'
S. Van Dessel← N. El Basri
66'
L. Schenk← A. Librici
66'
R. Esajas← R. Buifrahi
68'
M. Mahi← J. van de Haar
75'
C. Mmaee← S. Braken
82'
Y. El Jebli← T. van Gilst
82'
P. Brittijn← Jeffry Fortes
90+4'
Ilano Silva Timas

Possession

36%MVV

Shots

9MVV

Pass accuracy

44%MVV

Statistics

MVVDe
Overview
36%Possession64%
9Total Shots23
2Corners5
13Fouls11
Shots
9Total Shots23
1On Target11
5Off Target6
3Blocked6
5Inside Box14
4Outside Box9
Passing
36%Possession64%
330Total Passes591
214Accurate Passes488
65%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
11Saves1
Discipline
13Fouls11
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

Match Recap: MVV vs De Graafschap

MVV and De Graafschap drew 0-0 in Eerste Divisie on November 8, 2024.

De Graafschap controlled possession (64%) and registered 23 shots to 9.

The match was played at De Geusselt in Maastricht.